After a first text very quickly denounced for its weakness, it was finally the mention of a “transitioning away” which won support. The formula concerns all fossil fuels: coal, oil and gas. These last two sources of energy do not appear by name in the text, but their implicit presence is there, and as such it is a historic victory.
Rarely has a climate summit placed so much pressure on the shoulders of its president, Sultan al-Jaber. Hosted in a country where oil has long been king, COP 28 had to point out the “elephant in the room”. Many feared that this geographical choice would be a guarantee sent to the oil world. And in fact, this universe of producing countries, companies and lobbyists has deployed many means to block ambition and impose its transition narrative.
Ultimately, this COP in the land of black gold will have above all made it possible to break down a taboo. To the point of redrawing the traditional North-South divide of these major meetings. Over the past two weeks, the central question has been less the North’s responsibility for climate change than the semantic battle to include the term “exit” from fossil fuels in the final text. We saw the European Union and the alliance of small islands threatened by climate change come together. But also the United States and China agree on the terms of this exit.
On Monday, December 11, a large majority of countries were in favor, underline diplomatic sources on site. “This proves once again that we must protect these multilateral spaces for discussion, the COPs work even when the world is in disorder”, underlined at the beginning of the week Laurence Tubiana, the director of the European Climate Foundation, and the architect of the Paris Agreement in 2015.
Although praised for its innovative terms, the text remains imperfect. But the rules of the COPs are stiff: only one country could object to the adoption of a decision. The text adopted this Wednesday therefore testifies to this compromise. The attenuated mention around fossil fuels goes hand in hand with the demands of oil-producing countries. Particularly on the place given to carbon capture and storage solutions. These technologies would allow manufacturers to continue to exploit oil and gas while backing them with commitments to reduce emissions. But in a world that is moving (too) slowly into the post-oil era, it is not certain that these innovations will be enough to preserve a business whose image on the diplomatic scene is experiencing the beginnings of a decline.