On Monday, the parliament can carry out a motion of no confidence in the government and propose a new person as head of government. It will most certainly be Donald Tusk and as early as Wednesday he can be voted through as prime minister.
But it won’t just be a historic week for Poland. Next week will actually be historic for the entire EU.
If everything goes as expected – and you never know in situations like this – then Poland’s prime minister will be Donald Tusk as early as Wednesday evening.
The country of almost 40 million inhabitants, with a strongly growing economy and an equally strongly growing defense force, then takes its first faltering steps back towards democratic norms and cooperation with the rest of the EU. But it will take time and some changes may not even be possible to implement. Not least because of the imminent threat of a veto from the president.
Hope and worry in Warsaw
It is bitterly cold in Warsaw. Aleksandra Gajewska trudges through the snow, wearing a winter jacket that looks like it would be enough to survive in Antarctica. But she is happy, downright excited for the week ahead. She has been in parliament since 2019 for the Citizens’ Platform, the party that was second largest in the October election but, together with two other parties, still has a majority in the Polish parliament.
She quickly lists all the things she hopes the new government with Donald Tusk as prime minister will be able to implement: investment in the green light, rolling back the previous government’s changes to the justice system, legal abortion, maybe even same-sex marriage. She sees a bright future, even as she stands shivering in the icy wind.
But of course there is a problem and that is Andrzej Duda. The president, who belongs to Law and Justice, remains in office until the next presidential election in 2025.
Duda can veto any law passed by parliament. That’s why women’s rights organizations don’t think there will be much difference in terms of abortion for several years. If the three new government parties manage to agree on a new bill – which is far from certain – then Duda will probably veto it anyway. A veto that can only be overridden by two-thirds of parliament, something the new government will not have.
But despite that, Gajewska is sure of her cause. Changes are coming.
– There is a majority that wants us to govern and we will form a government. So he can’t be against everything. He will sign good laws, she says.
“People should be held accountable for what they have done”
In an apartment that is filled with books from floor to ceiling, TV4 Nyheterna meets Igor Tuleya. He is one of the judges who lost his job after Law and Justice started attacking the Polish legal system.
For two years he was suspended, without a real explanation, he says. And all of a sudden a year ago – once again without explanation – he received a message that he could return to work. He describes it as being in Kafka’s famous novel The Process.
Now that a new government is taking over, he wants people to be held accountable for what he called an attack on the judiciary.
– Those who broke the law or acted unethically should face consequences. If a politician has broken the law, they must be tried in a court of law, he says.
Poland is moving towards a new future. But it is also an uncertain future. There are many in the country who have high hopes that changes can come quickly. But there are also many who not only want to look ahead but also make sure that the country does not forget what Law and Justice pushed through. How Donald Tusk handles the various demands will be decisive for how he succeeds as prime minister.