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President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has forwarded Sweden’s NATO application to parliament. Archive image.
1 / 2Photo: Peter Dejong/AP/TT
The Turkish Foreign Affairs Committee will once again consider Sweden’s NATO application at a meeting next week, according to sources according to Turkey expert Paul Levin.
– Fissures within the government alliance were behind the postponement of the vote.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has forwarded Sweden’s NATO application to the Turkish parliament for ratification, where it must first pass the foreign affairs committee and then be taken up in the parliament’s main chamber.
At the committee’s meeting on November 16, the vote was postponed after a heated debate between the members. The question of Sweden’s application has subsequently been left hanging in the air as so many times before.
Cracks behind the decision
According to Paul Levin, head of the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University, two high-ranking figures in Turkish politics state that the Foreign Affairs Committee will once again take up Sweden’s application at its meeting next week.
– My assessment based on what I have heard from other sources is that cracks within the government alliance were behind the postponement of the vote. Erdogan’s party AKP did not have the ultra-nationalist MHP with it. The fact that they are now moving forward with a vote seems to indicate that they believe they can get this through, perhaps with the support of the opposition, says Levin.
Even if Sweden’s application is approved by the committee, the large chamber of the parliament can choose to say no to a ratification, he points out.
– Turkish media that are close to the regime have trumpeted since May 2022 that Sweden is a haven for terrorists, there has been no major reconsideration of that view. When the parliamentarians have to vote on Sweden’s application, there is a risk that many will choose to say no, especially if there is a secret vote.
Complicated by the war
The US offer to sell the F-16 fighter jet to Turkey if Sweden approves remains, Levin assesses.
– From what I understand, it is an offer that has remained since July, and that it is up to Turkey. If Turkey ratifies Sweden, the country can get the F-16, says Levin.
However, a possible settlement between the US and Turkey may have been complicated by the war between Israel and terrorist-labeled Hamas that broke out in early October.
– President Erdogan’s description of Hamas as freedom fighters has made it more difficult for President Biden to invite Erdogan to an official visit to Washington, which was part of a package deal according to American sources, says Levin.
FACT Sweden’s path towards NATO
Sweden applied for membership in NATO, in parallel with Finland, on 18 May 2022.
On July 5 of the same year, Sweden and Finland were formally given the status of prospective members, “invitees” in English.
For Finland, the process ended in April this year when membership became completely clear after Hungary and Turkey became the last NATO countries to ratify the country’s application.
In connection with the NATO summit in Vilnius at the beginning of July, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised to “as soon as possible” send the Swedish application to the parliament for ratification.
On October 23, the Turkish presidential office announced that Erdogan had signed and forwarded Sweden’s NATO application to the parliament.
On November 16, the issue was raised in the parliament’s foreign affairs committee, but the vote was postponed.
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