COP28 opens this Thursday in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. 197 states met for two weeks under the auspices of the UN to try to advance negotiations to combat climate change and its consequences. This year, the geopolitical context is tense, even as climate disasters hit all continents.
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It is urgent to agree, but with the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the UN is going through a crisis of credibility which can spread to environmental negotiations, according to Sebastien Treyer, director of the Institute of Sustainable Development and International Relations (Iddri): “ The Security Council and UN agencies fail to make themselves heard in the conflict in Gaza. Multilateralism is extremely powerless at the moment. »
Beyond that, he also notes the increase in tensions between States and within States and especially between large blocs. There are fewer and fewer bridges. “ We have the impression that we are block against block. This creates an atmosphere around the COP which means that it promises to be particularly difficult. What I hope we will manage to avoid is replaying an opposition between the West and the South which will be completely paralyzing. If we do not achieve a result, the blame will be on the countries of the North. »
He believes that the subject of climate change has the potential to rebuild trust. On condition that rich countries finally keep their promises of aid to vulnerable countries: that they agree to pay for the greenhouse gas emissions for which they are responsible.
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The question of fossil fuels
The exit from fossil fuels will be one of the other major issues of the United Nations Conference on Climate Change. The United Arab Emirates, host of the meeting and the seventh largest oil producer in the world, defends the vision of a low-carbon future compatible with the maintenance of fossil fuels, shared by other major oil and gas producing countries. gas. Faced with countries calling for the gradual abandonment of coal and hydrocarbons as a priority, they recommend relying on technology to improve carbon capture and storage.
L’International Energy Agency (IEA) put his foot in the dish before the meeting by believing that relying on carbon capture was a “ illusion » and that the fossil fuel sector had to choose between the worsening of the climate crisis and the switch to renewables. This report angered OPEC, which accused the IEA, an organization close to the West, of slandering oil producers. “ This is an extremely narrow framework for the challenges ahead, perhaps quickly underplaying issues such as energy security, energy access and affordability. », Estimated the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
A COP president criticized
Just before COP28, the UAE president of the COP, Sultan Al Jaber, was accused of wanting to use his position to promote UAE oil and energy projects in several countries. Criticized for months by NGOs and Western parliamentarians for his dual role as boss of COP28 and the national oil company Adnoc, Sultan Al Jaber defends a line that he describes as realistic, wanting to be a bridge between the Gulf and the countries demanding a rapid exit from oil.
But the numerous documents revealed Monday by the Center for Climate Reporting and the BBC confirm its detractors. They were transmitted by a “whistleblower” and show that briefings prepared for Sultan Al Jaber before meetings with representatives of foreign governments systematically contained key points about the two companies he heads, Adnoc and the company d renewable energy Masdar. These briefings involved meetings with nearly 30 countries, according to these documents.
“ These allegations are false, incorrect, inaccurate “, said Sultan Al-Jaber in Dubai, interviewed by journalists in Dubai during an event at the COP28 site on the eve of its opening.
UAE oil yet popular
Emirati production and reserves are coveted. The countries of the Asia-Pacific region are the main consumers: 98% of UAE oil exports go to them. Japan and China in the lead. And as the continent experiences economic growth, its demand for oil is increasing. Abu Dhabi increased its oil exports by 20% between 2021 and 2022.
But the war in Ukraine has also strengthened the interest of European countries in the Gulf. Sanctions targeting Russia prohibit them from obtaining food, as they did until then, from Moscow. They therefore need to find alternatives to Russian gas. Germany, which imported almost half of its gas from Russia, signed an agreement on “energy security” with Abu Dhabi in September. The French group TotalEnergies has signed an agreement for the production of liquefied gas with its Emirati counterpart Adnoc for $1 billion for three years. Issues that weigh heavily in the face of environmental commitments and ethical considerations on human rights.
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What are the challenges for Africa at this COP28?
The stakes are particularly high for Africa, which pollutes very little (4% of greenhouse gas emissions) and yet suffers the full brunt of disasters linked to global warming. For this new COP, Africa intends to speak with one voice to make its specific environmental needs heard, drawing on the conclusions of the Climate Summit held in Nairobi in September.
The continent now wants to establish itself as a key player in climate issues. An ambition driven by the Kenya of President William Ruto who organized the very first African Climate Summit in his capital. From this first edition came the ambitious “Nairobi Declaration” which summarizes the essential objectives that African states will defend in Dubai. In particular, there is the effective establishment of the “loss and damage” fund intended for poor countries, announced at the previous COP but not yet applied. And above all, they demand a drastic reform of international financial institutions, whose aid to fight climate change is considered unsuitable for the realities of the continent. Historically, rich countries are primarily responsible for climate change. And the continent is determined to exploit its oil and gas reserves, if the rich do not pay their ” climate debt “.