President of Russia Vladimir Putin waiting for the west to tire of supporting Ukraine. This was warned by the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy Josep Borrell in October.
Some kind of exhaustion is already visible.
Last Friday, a prominent German newspaper, the country’s largest tabloid Bild, reported citing its sources that Germany and the United States want to pressure Ukraine to come to the negotiating table with Russia by reducing arms deliveries.
Leading researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Charly Salonius-Pasternak does not believe that the political will of the US and Germany to help Ukraine has suddenly changed significantly.
– As long as the German Minister of Defense visits Kiev and says that the support will continue, I would be very skeptical that this would be a wider pressure project. I am more concerned about the ability of the countries to continue the support and whether they have the material to provide in the volume that is needed.
According to Salonius-Pasternak, Bild has often referred to anonymous government sources during the war. From time to time, the information published by the magazine has sounded strange to the ears of the researcher.
– It is impossible to say whether the comment was made by a younger advisor who opposes the government’s line, or by a minister who hopes to return to the pre-war era.
If Germany intends to continue supporting Ukraine with weapons, it needs to get its own arms industry up to speed. According to Salonius-Pasternak, it has proven to be a very difficult process.
In the case of the United States, according to Salonius-Pasternak, the hesitation may be due to the fact that the country wants to keep enough material in stock to be able to react to other possible conflicts, for example the dispute between China and Taiwan.
– Another concern is Donald Trump’s a possible return to power, because at that time the assistance to Ukraine may end like a wall. At the same time, it might be wise for Russia to wait until Trump wins the election before launching the next major attack.
So far, Bild’s arguments about reducing support are not reflected in the countries’ actions. Two weeks ago, Germany announced that the country would double its military aid to Ukraine next year to eight billion euros.
US Defense Minister who visited Ukraine Lloyd Austin again told last week about the new support package of 100 million dollars (91 million euros) for Ukraine. American Politico online magazine according to the additional support is to be voted on next week.
A peace agreement does not guarantee peace
Western leaders have reiterated that it is up to Ukraine to decide because it is ready to negotiate for peace. According to Salonius-Pasternak, the conditions for Ukraine to continue fighting are still completely in the hands of its supporters.
He would not like to be in Ukraine’s position to decide, because the peace negotiations should be started.
– Ukraine has a better starting point for negotiations now, before the information about the possible crumbling of support becomes public.
According to the researcher, there is no guarantee that Russia would honor any agreement with Ukraine. Russia could use the peace to prepare for another attack.
Signs of fatigue are noticeable
Elections held in different parts of Europe can have an unpredictable impact on support for Ukraine.
In Italy, the prime minister who publicly appeared as a solid supporter of Ukraine Georgia Meloni let the frog out of his mouth at the beginning of November in a prank call by Russian trolls.
– There is a lot of fatigue in every direction. We are close to the moment when everyone understands that we need a way out, says Meloni in the published recording of the call.
Meloni thought he was talking to the leadership of the African Union Commission.
According to Salonius-Pasternak, the above-mentioned information can be interpreted that the European united front is quietly disintegrating.
Another interpretation is that the statements are based more on the domestic political needs of politicians.
– When it’s time to make decisions and, for example, in the case of Geert Wilders, to form a government, it may be necessary for him to see the bigger picture, and he doesn’t necessarily need to be as sharp then, Salonius-Pasternak estimates.
The ranks of the EU are cracking
Despite everything, Salonius-Pasternak sees no signs that Ukraine’s most prominent individual supporters have given up on the country.
However, deciding on joint EU support is becoming more complicated.
Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán met Putin in Beijing last month. Orbán has since promised blocks all EU joint aid packages for Ukraine and the country’s accession to the EU.
The Hungarian government is likely to receive support from the newly elected prime minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico. According to Salonius-Pasternak, if Hungary also received help from the EU’s significant net payer Holland and Geert Wilders, it would make the EU’s operations and aid possibilities significantly more difficult.
– Blocking financial support is of course easier if there are three members in the group, and not only Orbán. This is a much more serious threat to Ukraine than the end of support for an individual country, says Salonius-Pasternak.
However, he wants to make it clear that the end of US support would also be a big problem for Ukraine.
According to Salonius-Pasternak, the information about the weakening of the desire to help should definitely be seen as weak signals. However, they do not yet directly mean that support for Ukraine is coming to an end.
– At that point, I would be really worried if the United States or the EU officially changed their line with regard to Ukraine, and told about limiting aid.
Kaihkö: Ukraine has enough resources to fight through the winter
The first snow has fallen in Ukraine. Winter conditions make progress more challenging for both sides of the war.
Docent of Military Sciences and Visiting Researcher of the Aleksanteri Institute Ilmari Käihkö believes that Russia and Ukraine have their own reasons for continuing to attack despite the changed weather conditions.
– Despite the great losses, Russia still has the resources and the will to change the frontline situation, as has been seen in the direction of Avdijivka. This will may be affected by the upcoming presidential elections in Russia and the desire of the Russian leadership to show that the battles are yielding results.
Käihkö estimates that Ukraine is better able to wear down Russian forces by defending than by attacking. Still, he believes that Ukraine wants to keep up the pressure during the winter.
According to him, settling for defense would give Russia the opportunity to further strengthen the defense stations built last winter. Russia has not yet fortified the Kherson region like Zaporizhia.
Käihkö estimates that Ukraine now has enough resources to continue fighting through the winter. However, waning support from the West could force Ukraine to focus solely on defense.
However, according to Käihkö, it is likely that there will be no significant changes on the fronts this winter either.