Is Covid-19 ending? – Health News

Is Covid 19 ending Health News

According to the news of İsmail Sarı from Hürriyet; When the first coronavirus case was announced in Turkey, the calendar was showing March 11, 2020. On the same day, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a pandemic. In the last two years, the first item on our agenda has always been the pandemic. Curfew restrictions, mask requirement, terms related to the epidemic that we all memorized, variants, vaccines and drugs entered our lives. In this process, the balance sheet of the epidemic in our country was also heavy. Close to 15 million people have been infected with the coronavirus. More than 96 thousand people died due to the virus. But after all these bad days, the latest variant of the coronavirus, Omicron, turned the pandemic process into a positive direction.

OMICRON THE MOST INFECTIOUS VARIANT

In fact, Omicron is considered the most contagious variant of the coronavirus to date. It has even been classified as a ‘Variant of Concern’ by the World Health Organization. But apart from all this, the low hospitalization and death rates create confidence that Omicron is quickly moving the pandemic into the post-pandemic era. For this reason, scientists around the world underline that the light at the end of the tunnel is now visible.

OMICRON CAN END THE EPIDEMIC

Tyra Grove Krause, chief epidemiologist of the Danish State Serum Institute, emphasized in their latest study that the risk of hospitalization in Omicron is half that of the Delta variant. Stating that Omicron can bring an end to the epidemic, Kruse said, “According to our study, there will be a small increase in cases in the coming spring due to Omicron. However, when the rise stops, we will be in a better place than before.”

PANDEMIC IN HIGH VACCINATION COUNTRIES WILL END IN SPRING

“We’re almost at the end,” said Francois Balloux, Director of University College London’s Institute of Genetics. prof. Balloux said they’ve seen some fluctuations in Europe this winter, but are “quite confident” that the pandemic phase of the virus will end in the spring in countries with high vaccination rates. Professor Julian Hiscox, from the University of Liverpool, told the BBC: “We’re almost at the end, by mid-2022 life will be like pre-pandemic.”

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ARE WE AT THE BEGINNING OF A NEW COVID ERA?

Immunology Specialist Prof., who works as a Principal Investigator at the Jackson Laboratory Institute in the USA, whose opinions I applied to the subject. Dr. Derya Forgetz said, “We knew that the situation would come to this point in December. Together with Omicron, we predicted that the end of the pandemic would accelerate,” he said, adding:
“There are two main reasons for this. The first is that vaccination has reached very high rates, and the second is that Omicron is very contagious. So much so that even those who were vaccinated got Omicron. But serious illnesses and deaths remained very low. The main reason for this is the previous immunity to Omicron. In summary, deaths did not increase proportionally in cases reaching the million level. Because Omicron infected so many people, it built its own immunity. Some of those who were missing the vaccine also died.”

OMICRON CONTRIBUTES POSITIVELY TO HARD IMMUNITY

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Infectious Diseases Specialist Prof. Dr. Alper Şener said, “Omicron is a very contagious variant. For this reason, it has made a positive contribution to the herd immunity that we are trying to achieve with vaccination,” he said, and stated that it would be possible to cut the chain of transmission with individual and social measures, “Actually, this is the most difficult thing… But no matter what, it is not possible to end the risk of variants that will continue to circulate in nature, that is, among animals. “After this stage, we must prepare for possible new types of viruses and variants,” he said.

RISK OF DEATH FROM COVID LOWERS BELOW THE RISK OF DEATH FROM FLU FOR THE FIRST TIME

Until 2020 and early 2021, the biggest concern with the coronavirus was that the virus was more deadly than the flu. In a study published in the journal Lancet Respiratory Medicine towards the end of 2020, it was emphasized that the death rate among hospitalized coronavirus patients is almost three times higher than that of flu patients. A few months after this research, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization, said, “The death rate of Covid-19 is estimated to be 10 times higher than the flu,” comparing Covid-19 with the flu. However, at the point reached today, the risk of death from Covid has dropped below the probability of death from flu for the first time.

THE NUMBER OF DEATH DUE TO COVID IS 2-3 TIMES LESS THAN THOSE DEATH DUE TO FLU

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According to the analysis made by the Daily Mail consisting of coronavirus data in England, it was underlined that Covid is less deadly than the flu. In the analyzed data, it was announced that the rate of those who lost their lives due to coronavirus is 2-3 times below the rate of those who died from the flu virus.

RISK OF DEATH IN DELTA DROPPED 5-10 TIMES WITH VACCINATION DISTRIBUTION

Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious diseases specialist at the University of East Anglia, said: “It is now possible to say that Covid is less deadly than the flu. But if another variant emerges, it can turn everything around.” prof. Dr. Derya Forgetz said that she sees this situation as “a very important development” and said, “We started to see this decrease with Delta. With the spread of vaccines, the risk of death in the Delta fell 5-10 times. However, it was still higher than the flu. During the delta storm, the death rate was 1 in 1,000, while in the flu it was around 1 in 5,000.” Said.

IT IS NOT TRUE TO SAY CORONAVIRUS IS NO FATAL

prod. Dr. Derya Forgetmez pointed out that the coronavirus is still deadly and said, “The very rapid spread of Omicron and the formation of the immune shield accelerated this process. Vaccination has increased in some countries. People who got three doses of the vaccine began to have a lower risk of death from flu death. Still, it wouldn’t be right to say that thanks to this immune shield, it is no longer deadly for the coronavirus, but it has dropped seriously…” he said.

COVID-19 HAS BEEN MATED

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prof. Dr. Alper Şener said, “When we look at the data we have now, it is true that it is lower than the flu. When we look at the concrete data we have, we can say that Covid-19 has become domesticated. But the fact that this continues in the form of a decrease in the number of patients does not mean that the extraordinary situation has disappeared. After all, in geographies such as Africa, the rate of vaccination still varies between 3 and 5 percent.”

WE WILL CLOSE TO THE END IN SPRING AND SUMMER

“I’ve said dozens of times at the beginning of Omicron that we’re getting very close to the end in spring or summer. I think the same way again,” said Prof. Dr. Derya Forgetz said, “We will have reached a significant level of social immunity in our country in the spring months, and we will be quite relieved in the summer months” and gave important information:
“This situation has already started to occur in some countries. For example, the USA and the UK… But there may not be a huge decrease in the number of cases. It can stay at the level of 10 thousand. But since the vast majority of them are mild, it is now very difficult to call it a pandemic. For a pandemic to occur, the death rate must be high. Therefore, the world in general will go from the pandemic level to the endemic level.”

“WE WILL BE IN A CONDITION WHERE EVERYONE ACCEPTS THE VIRUS”

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University of London virologist Elisabetta Groppelli also defends this view, saying, “Endemism was written in the codes of this virus.” Groppelli says, “Very soon, we will be in a situation where the virus is circulating, where we protect the risk groups, but where everyone else accepts that they will get the virus. This means that we are now in the endemic stage.”

Endemic is defined as the condition in which a contagious disease can survive in a certain population without any effect. For example, tuberculosis (TB) is one of the endemic diseases in our country.

TAKE PRECAUTIONS UNTIL FALL OVER 65 AND WITH CHRONIC DISEASE

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prof. Dr. Alper Şener also underlined that the summer period will be comfortable, but while warning for citizens over the age of 65, he also shared an important detail for social immunity:
“We can say that the epidemic is over if a variant as deadly as Delta and as contagious as Omicron does not infect us in the coming days. However, we must keep the importance of reminder doses alive, especially for those over 65 and those with chronic diseases, until autumn. In addition, the concept of ‘herd immunity’ has lost its importance with Omicron. Because it has ceased to be an achievable goal. Right now, individual immunity and protection are important.”

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY TO BE CAUGHT IN TWO VARIANS AT THE SAME TIME

In his latest statement on the variants of the coronavirus, Moderna Health Officer Paul Burton emphasized that catching both the Delta and the Omicron variant at the same time may lead to the emergence of a new and more dangerous variant. Stating that such a situation can be seen especially in immunocompromised people, Burton noted that the combination in question will create the possibility of worse symptoms of Covid-19. Aleksandr Semyonov, Head of the Russian Vector Virology Research Center, also announced that people can get two variants at the same time. However, Semyonov said this could be “quite rare”.

WILL DELTA+OMICRON’S JOINT ACTION RESTORE THE EPIDEMIC?

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prof. Dr. Derya Forgetz said, “Data was shared on this subject before, but it was not very reliable. When we look at the results of the Pasteur Institute, it is possible to say that it is more reliable,” he said, and shared the following information about the common contamination of both variants:
“When a few such cases were seen in France, they worked on it intensely. There are also reported cases in the United States. But I don’t think it’s more contagious. Because if there was such a situation, we would see it at a very high rate. If it becomes widespread, it can be fatal in unvaccinated people, but I don’t think these two will grow too much.”

SHOULD I HAVE THE FOURTH DOSE VACCINE?

“I do not find the fourth dose very necessary, but there are exceptions,” said Prof. Dr. Derya Forgetz drew attention to those aged 60 and over and those with immune disease:
“People over 60-65 years of age may need a fourth dose because their immunity is weak. People with immune disease and genetically immune disease may not develop enough immunity as a result of three doses. Therefore, a fourth dose may be needed for them. These people may need a fourth dose at least three months after the third dose. It’s good to have a dose.”

PANCORONA VACCINES ARE EFFECTIVE AGAINST ALL VARIANTS

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prof. Dr. Alper Şener, on the other hand, is against variants such as Delta+Omicron and Prof. Dr. He emphasized that ‘pankorona’ vaccines for people over the age of 65 should be done quickly and added:
“The vaccine that is effective against all variants of Pankorona vaccines… It is very important for both current and possible future patients. The fourth dose of vaccine should not be neglected, of course, but it will be more beneficial if the work of Pancorona vaccines is completed and distributed to the world. If Pancorona vaccines are finished, will this be a booster vaccination? Will there be vaccination with a new vaccine, too? For this, it is necessary to see the results of these vaccine studies that will be announced this summer.”

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