Now the Riksbank has finished raising for this time, at least according to Swedbank.
After last week’s interest rate announcement, Swedbank assesses that the Riksbank is changing its line.
An interest rate cut is expected instead in June.
“We had expected that the Riksbank would raise the policy rate by 25 basis points, which means that we are now revising our forecast down. The Riksbank is signaling that there is a risk of another increase in the future, but we assess that this will not be the case,” says Andreas Wallström, head of forecasting at Swedbank.
Swedbank now sees a scenario where the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) initiate reductions in the second quarter and the Riksbank follows suit and lowers the interest rate by midsummer.
With regard to mortgage interest rates, the bank assesses that the fixed rates are expected to be relatively stable in the near term and to fall slightly later in the forecast period.
“The variable mortgage interest rates are expected to have peaked at around 4.8 percent, but will only start to drop more clearly from the second half of 2024 in connection with the Riksbank’s interest rate cuts,” says Andreas Wallström.