Populist like him, disruptive like him and big mouth – like him –, is Javier Milei a Hugo Chavez of the right? The electoral triumph of the Argentine economist on November 19 – with an 11-point lead over the Minister of the Economy Sergio Massa – recalls the earthquake that was, twenty-five years ago, the victory of the lieutenant-colonel Venezuelan, end of 1998. Yesterday as today, both reached the supreme office in economically exhausted countries, prey to galloping corruption and poverty, promising a bright tomorrow for societies ready to entrust it to providential men with volcanic temperaments.
The only difference: the socialist Chavez knew nothing about macroeconomics. He proposed to strengthen the social state (which did not prevent him from destroying it entirely with the complicity of his successor Nicolas Maduro), while the anarcho-libertarian Milei intends to resuscitate Argentina by reducing the state machine to the minimum portion. At the head of a restricted cabinet (only eight ministries instead of 18 currently: Defense, Justice, Economy, Foreign Affairs, Infrastructure, Interior, Security and Human Capital, which will bring together health, education, work and business social), the new president promises to abolish the Central Bank, dollarize the country, deregulate the economy and eliminate social benefits.
But can Milei’s “shock therapy”, inspired by Nobel Prize-winning economist Friedrich Hayek (1899-1992), even be implemented? “I have doubts,” confesses Franco-Mexican expert Gaspard Estrada. Some of his proposals require the approval of Congress, where he does not have a majority; others, such as the elimination of the Central Bank or the dollarization, demand a reform of the Constitution, which stipulates that a state bank is responsible for issuing the currency and fixing its value. However, Libertad Avanza, Milei’s party, only has 38 deputies out of 257 and 8 senators out of 72. And the state of grace from which he will benefit could be short-lived. When he reaches the Casa Rosada (the Argentine Elysée), the serious economic crisis will not stop on its own. As in the case of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, the man who electrified Argentina – to the point of supplanting the hegemonic Peronist Party – in the hearts of the popular classes may well not perform miracles.