can kyiv’s forces defeat the Russians on the Dnieper? – The Express

After the recapture of the city of Kherson and neighboring territories by the Ukrainian army in November 2022, the wide river, which splits Ukraine in two, transformed into a new demarcation line in the south of the country, limiting the movements of troops and armored vehicles. Overcoming this natural obstacle could represent a major opportunity for kyiv. “This is the most direct route to Crimea,” points out General (2S) Jérôme Pellistrandi, editor-in-chief of the National Defense Magazine. And the reconquest of the peninsula remains one of kyiv’s priority objectives.”

For the Ukrainian forces, whose counter-offensive launched in June failed to make major territorial gains, the area also presents another interest. “This is the Russians’ weak point,” notes General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French mission to the UN and author of What lies ahead – the butterfly effect of global conflicts (Ed. Robert Laffont, 2023). The defenses they have put in place are concentrated on an axis connecting the Zaporizhia and Kharkiv oblasts, but they are less important on the eastern bank of the Dnieper.”

If, at this stage, the Ukrainians have not communicated on the number of men who have joined the zone, the head of the occupied part of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, affirmed on Wednesday that a little more than around a hundred men had taken up positions on the banks of the river. For kyiv’s forces, the challenge is to move up a gear by bringing heavy assets to the other side of the bank. For now, fighting would take place in the village of Krynky, located two kilometers from the Dnieper and around thirty from Kherson.

“The infantry can break through the Russian defenses occasionally, but this will not be decisive,” underlines General Trinquand. “The difficulty for the Ukrainians will be to move from a limited action to a truly large-scale offensive.” An operation much more difficult than incursions by boat. “Crossing a watercourse is always extremely complex, adds General Pellistrandi. Firstly, we must have sufficient means to be able to cross, such as motorized floating bridges. Then, we must put in place a protective bubble around the area, using artillery and anti-aircraft defense, to prevent your forces from coming under enemy fire during this high-risk maneuver.”

The Russians learned this the hard way in May 2022, during the attempt to cross the Donets River, in the east of the country. Caught under Ukrainian artillery fire, the troops concentrated near the watercourse had recorded, according to estimates, the loss of nearly 80 armored vehicles and 485 men. Beyond just the crossing, the question of supplying the forces engaged on the eastern bank would also arise. “A permanent logistical flow would be necessary, confirms General Pellistrandi. But the Russians would probably do everything to try to stop it.”

Mute in recent days regarding the ongoing events on the east bank of the Dnieper, the Russian army spoke out this Friday, November 17, claiming to be inflicting heavy losses on the Ukrainian forces. “The enemy lost more than 460 soldiers (killed and wounded), two tanks and 17 vehicles during unsuccessful attempts to land on an island and on the right bank of the Dnieper,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement. communicated. Less than a week earlier, Monday, November 13, state media had nevertheless indicated, quoting the same ministry, that Russian troops present in the area were being transferred “to more favorable positions” – a formulation used by the passed to qualify retirements – before finally retracting a few minutes later.