Research director Sinikukka Saari highlights three methods of hybrid influence that Russia has used or could use against its border neighbors.
The clearest example of Russia’s bullying tactics against neighboring countries is directing migrants across the border. Russia has already used it against Norway and Finland.
– Now once again the effort is being made to put pressure on Finland with possibly such a migrant weapon, Saari estimates.
Saari works as a research director at the Foreign Policy Institute. interviewed him via video connection.
The first temptation: Asylum seekers across the border
Asylum seekers began to come from Russia to Norway and Finland more widely since the end of 2015.
– The question was about a fairly limited activity that only lasted for a few months, says Saari.
Since then, the same thing has been seen on the western borders of Belarus.
– However, Belarus has used the migrant weapon much more systematically in relation to Poland and Lithuania for many years, says Saari.
Saari reminds that Russia and Belarus are close allies and their security services cooperate a lot.
– At least ideas about the operation have been exchanged. It feels like 2015 was a test ball that was developed even more by Belarus, says Saari.
So far, however, there is no evidence of large-scale Russian activities to guide or allow migrants to enter Finland.
– We are talking about really small amounts, so there is really no reason to panic, says Saari.
Western countries have also had time to prepare for something similar. Last October, Norway tightened the entry conditions at the only border crossing between the two countries, in Storskog near Kirkkoniemi.
Another temptation: Migrant workers become a tool for pressure
Russia has many migrant workers from the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus. If necessary, it can use them to put pressure on neighboring countries.
In late 2006, Russia arrested thousands of Georgian migrant workers and deported more than 2,300 of them back to Georgia. The background was the tension between Russia and Georgia. Before the expulsions, Russia also imposed economic sanctions on Georgia.
Human rights organization According to a report by Human Rights Watch (HRW). many of the deportees had lived in Russia legally. Russia took those arrested to show trials that could only last a few minutes.
– They could even have a Russian passport, but still they were sent to their former homeland, says Saari.
According to Russia, it was about the fight against crime and illegal immigration. However, according to HRW, Russia specifically targeted Georgians.
Relations between the countries tightened even more. Russia and Georgia went to war in August 2008.
According to Saari, the same means of pressure is useful for Central Asian countries, because many foreign workers have left for Russia as well.
– Russia can very creatively use different means or hint at their use, i.e. put pressure on, says Saari.
The third temptation: Environmental destruction or a fake accident
Russia could also damage the neighboring country’s infrastructure. Saari reminds that this is exactly what was suspected when the gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia was damaged at the anchor.
There could be other ways.
– Damage to the environment or sneaky work disguised as an accident. In addition to border issues, Saari lists Russia’s possibilities.
In practice, it could be, for example, an oil spill from a Russian tanker in the Baltic Sea.
According to Saari, it is typical of these hybrid means that it is difficult to prove the culprit. It may also remain unclear whether it was deliberate sneaky work or an accident.
Whatever Russia’s method, it is often about intimidation.
– However, Russia does not necessarily get political benefits from these, but on the contrary, these things are prepared more strictly, says Saari.
According to Saari, Finland should not panic, and not let Russian pressure influence its own decisions.