It has been almost two months since the war resumed between the national army, supported by the Russian Wagner group, and the CSP (Permanent Strategic Framework), today mainly made up of groups which had risen in 2012 for the independence of the northern regions. But this resumption of fighting in Mali has provoked absolutely no reaction from international mediation for monitoring the 2015 peace agreement, led by Algeria. No declaration, no press release. A silence which reflects both a loss of influence and a patient waiting strategy.
Malian transitional authorities and the CSP blame each other of the resumption of the war. Who is responsible for it? The international mediation for monitoring the 2015 peace agreement has not commented on the subject. No arbitration, not even a call for restraint, protection of civilians or dialogue. Diplomats and researchers, Algerians, Malians, West Africans and Europeans, the interlocutors contacted by RFI to understand and analyze this silence all requested anonymity.
No meetings since June
“ International mediation has not met since June », confides a diplomat directly concerned. As a reminder, mediation is led by Algeria but brings together many neighboring countries (Niger, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Chad, Nigeria) and international organizations (UN, AU, ECOWAS, EU, OIC). The peace agreement specifies that members of the UN Security Council are also “ invited to participate in the work of the committee ” feedback. But for five months, and therefore since the resumption of the war two months ago, its members have no longer found themselves in the same room.
“ Minusma was the driving force behind mediation, continues this diplomatic source, it provided the secretariat, it wrote the press releases. » Today, the UN mission no longer has this mandate and is living its final hours. Although certain member countries tried to revive mediation after the resumption of fighting and to organize new transfers, their attempts had no effect.
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“ The military in power no longer want this mediation, explains another diplomat. They believe that it is an interference that works against them. » Created upon its signature as a guarantee for the application of the peace agreement for the benefit of all the signatory parties, and supposed to call the armed groups or the government to order in the event of a breach, international mediation would today be today perceived by the Malian transitional authorities as an enemy. “ Those in the transition who still believe in the peace agreement, and they are not the most numerous, continues a researcher, want to directly manage its application. » Objective: an inter-Malian process, led in and by Bamako.
Complicated relationship with Bamako
“ The general observation is that we no longer have any leverage, recognizes a diplomat, there is no longer any exchange with Bamako. » All the sources consulted explain that over the months, and in particular after the second coup d’état of May 2021, the Malian transitional authorities gradually stopped responding to mediation initiatives. “ The relationship is not completely broken but it has become complicated », nuances a researcher.
Is Algeria, also silent, on the verge of being ousted? Leader of international mediation, direct neighbor of Mali whose slightest upheaval it has always monitored, Algeria nevertheless continues to defend the 2015 peace agreement, for which it was largely involved. The negotiations had largely taken place in Algiers, which means that this agreement signed in Bamako was most often referred to as the “Algiers Agreement.” »
Researchers and diplomats all summarize the equation in the same way: Algeria does not want the resurgence on its doorstep of an independence rebellion which could give ideas to the Tuaregs of southern Algeria. But she also does not want a Malian military occupation in Kidal, with the risk of a guerrilla war which would set the region ablaze for a long time, triggering the influx of thousands of refugees and further strengthening the jihadist threat. Not even to mention the presence of the Wagner group on its border. Clearly, the 2015 peace agreement is considered by Algeria as the best guarantor of the stability of Mali, but also of its own national security. So it’s about saving him. “ Even if it means improving it », Notes a researcher.
Avoid missteps
“ It’s a waiting posture », confirm several diplomats with the same words. “ They are not stationary, they maintain contact and wait for the right moment to move forward. “Algeria having failed to prevent the resumption of fighting, it would wait for their outcome and the opening of a political window to return to the game. ” They are ready to relaunch mediation but they do not want to make any missteps or make public announcements. » The fiasco of Algerian mediation in Niger, aborted last month even before it began, left its mark.
“ They will come out of the woods when the balance of power is clearer », agrees a researcher. “ Bamako’s strategy, which favors the military offensive, goes against the peace agreement, analyzes another researcher. But Algiers is careful not to be in opposition publicly, to maintain the chances of a resumption of mediation. » For Algiers therefore, silence would not be synonymous with inertia but with strategy. Constrained, but conscious and patient.
History and patriotism
“ With the current regime in Mali, I find it hard to imagine that Algeria can regain its place », However, decides a diplomat. “ They overestimate their weight “. If it is true that Mali has often turned to Algeria to resolve its problems in the North, it could, like other historical partners before it, pay the price for the new form of patriotism claimed by the authorities transitional Malians. “ As for the CSP, they are angry with Algeria for not having sufficiently taken into account the shift in the transitional authorities and for not having spoken out on the arrival of Wagner. The time when Algeria could impose its solutions seems to be over. »
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Algeria will enter the UN Security Council next January, as a non-permanent member. An opportunity to promote its diplomatic model, which an eviction of the Malian file would painfully tarnish.
No comments
Asked by RFI, the Malian ministries of National Reconciliation and Foreign Affairs did not wish to comment. The Algerian ambassador who is leading the international mediation did not follow up.
During the last months which preceded the resumption of the war, several CSP executives praised to RFI the availability of the Algerian mediator while taking offense at his flexibility vis-à-vis the transitional authorities, accused by the rebels not to get involved in the application of the agreement. In the current context, the CSP did not wish to comment on the subject.