Moscow promised a “Blitzkrieg”. The enemy capital was to fall “in two hours with a parachute regiment”, according to the Russian Minister of Defense… It was in 1996, at the time of the first war in Chechnya. But nothing had gone as planned. After a year of fighting, the Russian army, faced with fierce urban guerrillas, had no choice but to withdraw. Could the same scenario happen in Ukraine?
“The hypothesis of a collapse of the Russian army cannot be ruled out, says military historian Michel Goya, retired naval colonel. At this stage, we are in a situation of military blockage. The Russian advance is slowing as troops are concentrated on besieging towns, in convoys and protecting logistical axes, but they have suffered heavy casualties and are facing stiff resistance.”
In addition, the weather complicates the advance of the soldiers, the premature arrival of spring having caused the ground to thaw. Above all, the Kremlin needs new blood to fight. “It is estimated that the Russians have committed around 150,000 soldiers in this offensive, ie 100% of the units deployed beforehand, so they no longer have any reserves in the area”, specifies the French army staff.
Syrian “volunteers” mobilized
“Russia is approaching the maximum level of commitment of its active ground forces, abounds, in a note of March 10, the Newlines Institute. In addition to operations in the Ukrainian theater, Russia also has the obligation to maintain a military capacity security along its other border areas and to ensure internal security in the event of widespread protests.”
There are still a few active units and several tens of thousands of reservists, but the latter are less seasoned because they are less well trained. “The reform of the Russian army, which began fifteen years ago, is still in progress and there are not enough volunteers, adds Michel Goya. As a result, the Russians rely a lot on conscripts, who are not supposed to to be engaged abroad.”
So, to find new recruits, Vladimir Putin has his own idea. He called this Friday, March 11 for the mobilization of foreign “volunteers” in Ukraine. Fighters who could be recruited in Syria, where Russia has provided decisive military support to the regime of Bashar al-Assad since 2015, and has made this land a sad laboratory to test its military arsenal.
At least 2,500 dead on the Russian side
“The Middle East has become a large reservoir of mercenaries, continues Michel Goya. Nearly 16,000 men could come from Iraq and Syria.” Their mobilization would reduce the cost of the war in the eyes of Russian public opinion, still marked by the return of the “zinc coffins” of soldiers killed in Afghanistan. And, in Ukraine, the losses are already significant. “Even the low estimates evoke more than 2,500 dead on the Russian side, which is considerable in fifteen days of war”, according to this specialist. In comparison, the Russian army had lost 15,000 men in Afghanistan (1979-1989).
These losses, added to the logistical problems encountered by the army in the field, can affect the morale of the troops. From there to precipitate the Russian defeat? Too early to say. Putin’s army still hopes to cause a “cascade effect”, which would consist of unblocking the siege of a city, like Mariupol, to release forces before methodically attacking the other cities.
In this battle, Putin has a formidable weapon at his disposal: the bombardments, which are already daily in several Ukrainian cities. “The Russian army is not cut out for urban combat; it therefore favors the ‘besiege and starve method’, specifies Michel Goya. Either put maximum pressure on the population to obtain a surrender rather than having to go on the offensive.” Like in Aleppo in 2016. Or in Grozny, sixteen years earlier, during the second Chechen war, this time won by the Russians.