The New York Times and Sienna College did a sizeable Gallup former president Donald Trump’s and the sitting president Joe Biden of popularity. Popularity was often measured in swing states that decide the US presidential election.
If the presidential election were held now, 48 percent of the respondents would vote for Trump, 44 percent for Biden.
It’s not that the Americans especially want a president who has been boiled in many broths, who jumps from one court case to another Donald Trump’s. It’s about the Democrats Joe Biden wanted out of the White House.
US presidential elections are often decided in those states where the support of the Republican and Democratic candidates is the most even, and the winning party changes from election to election. In the 2020 presidential election, Biden decisively won the swing states of Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Wisconsin.
Exactly one year before the 2024 presidential election, Trump is more popular in all of those states except Wisconsin, NYT and Sienna College polls show.
It’s not a difference that disappears into the margin of error: Trump’s approval rating in Gallup’s states was 4 percentage points higher than Biden’s on average. If the election were held now, Biden would probably get a rare ugly backlash in the Libra state.
Young people and minorities abandoning the Democrats because of Biden
Trump’s crushing numbers aren’t even the most surprising result of Gallup, which caused a stir: Biden has weaned off parts of the population that previously regularly voted for Democrats.
In 2020, Biden was elected president with, among other things, the votes of young people, ethnic minorities such as African-Americans and Latinos, and urban residents.
In the NYT poll, Biden leads Trump among those under 30 by just one percentage point. 42 percent of Latinos would vote for Trump now, compared to only 30 percent in 2020.
22 percent of African-Americans in the Libra states are more likely to vote for Trump as president. Never in history have African-Americans been so ready to vote for a Republican in a presidential election.
50 percent of women voters are still on the side of Biden and the Democrats. However, this advantage suffers from the fact that only 37 percent of men would vote for Biden.
The problem isn’t the Democratic Party, it’s Biden. When Gallup respondents were given the option to vote for an “unnamed Democrat” or Trump, the Democratic candidate received 48 percent of the vote and Trump 40 percent.
Age and health, the economy, and above all, Gaza
What is it about Biden that disgusts Americans so much? First of all, it is about the health of the 80-year-old Biden, who is often in public with a hump and confused in his speeches. 71 percent of voters in the Libra states think that Biden is too old to be president. In 2020, in the same poll question in the same region, only 34 percent of the voters thought so.
Second, it’s about the economy. They are not satisfied with Biden’s economic management: 52 percent of those who responded to the poll see the current economic situation as poor. 59 percent of the respondents believe that Trump handles economic matters better than Biden.
The recent popularity of Biden can be significantly damaged by Israel’s military actions in Gaza. After the terrorist attack by Hamas, Israel has bombarded the Gaza Strip non-stop in response.
Young voters on the left wing of the Democrats, in particular, see the suffering of Palestinian civilians as a disaster for America’s reputation, already tarnished by interventions in the Middle East. 49 percent of the 18-29-year-old poll respondents in the Libra states would trust Trump more in handling the Israel-Palestine conflict.
– These voters are concerned about the lives of the Palestinians, and now the ongoing war and the actions of the current administration only move them (young voters) further away from the president (Biden), the left-wing Democratic senator For Bernie Sanders worked as a political planner commented anonymously to Politico.
No challengers for gray hair
Biden is unpopular, but so is Trump.
39 percent of NYT and Sienna College Gallup respondents consider Trump too old for the job. In 2020, 18 percent thought so in a poll conducted in the same region.
Trump is also already 77 years old, and has recently made similar incoherent statements in public as Biden, such as Helsingin Sanomat’s video compilation tells.
41 percent of the poll respondents see Trump as a threat to democracy.
But where are the options for the two old gentlemen? The governor of Florida, who was thought to be the rising star of the Republican Party by Ron DeSantis the campaign started to fade already in the summer. A moderate old-school Republican with a fine streak Nikki Hailey would need still a quick boost before he could challenge Trump.
For the Democrats, the options are even tighter: in addition to Biden, only a member of the House of Representatives from Minnesota has registered for their presidential candidate race Dean Phillips and writer-politician Marianne Williamson. They are not terribly well-known politicians even in the United States.
However, the election is still a year away, and a lot can happen. The economic situation and events in the Middle East may yet turn in Biden’s favor.
However, Biden’s age is not going anywhere anymore.