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Sweden must be prepared for Russia to attack other countries after Ukraine, according to ÖB.
The Swedish Armed Forces now want to invest more in, among other things, air defense and to work together with NATO with combat forces outside of Sweden.
But this means that the build-up of the army is delayed.
Sweden’s defense must be both upgraded and adapted to NATO. On Monday, Commander-in-Chief Micael Bydén submitted his military advice to the government on how it should be done.
ÖB states that this is a major change that the Armed Forces are facing.
– We are going from having been militarily non-aligned to becoming allies in a collective defence. For us, this means that the fundamentals have fundamentally changed for Swedish defense policy, says Micael Bydén to TT.
The military council is a basis for the Riksdag’s defense decision to be made in 2024, and points out how the Swedish defense should be designed in 2025–2035.
Russia the big threat
And the council means big changes compared to before.
In 2020, when current defense decisions were made, Russia had not launched its large-scale invasion of Ukraine, and Sweden had not given away large amounts of defense equipment, nor sought membership in NATO.
Swedish defense policy must take into account the risk that Russia’s war against Ukraine could escalate into an attack on other states, according to ÖB.
– It’s not a question of if, but when Russian military capability is back on track after losses in Ukraine, says Bydén.
ÖB wants to see an increased focus on air defense, among other things to be able to be part of NATO’s integrated air and robotic defense, and an increased ability to use and defend against drones.
Operations outside Sweden
Two of the army’s brigades are also prioritized to be able to participate early in NATO’s ground operations, not least outside Sweden’s borders.
– Being an ally will mean that we need to have units that are manned, equipped and trained to be able to quickly go into operations, says Bydén.
According to ÖB, expectations are high that Sweden will be able, if necessary, to enter with units in another country soon after entry.
ÖB also wants to develop logistics so that Sweden can act as a “base area” for allied units. This may mean new infrastructure and advance storage of weapons and materiel.
– We have to figure out how to ship the amount of stuff that arrives, regardless of what it weighs and how big it is. They need to be on our roads, railways and they need to get into our airports in some way so that you speed it up.
TT: Should new bases be built for this?
– We have the bases we have, ports, air bases, large garrison areas. But it is obvious that more will need to be invested.
ÖB emphasizes that the defense advises against “new organizational units”, such as flotillas or regiments. However, current bases may need to be supplemented with things like storage and the like, he says.
Two brigades are delayed
ÖB also proposes that 10,000 conscripts should be trained every year already from 2030. Today around 5,000-6,000 are being trained.
TT: Could it be a problem for the Armed Forces to change so drastically?
– There will be some challenges. It is a big mental change to become an ally and NATO member. Here are areas we need to work very actively with, says ÖB.
At the same time, it appears from ÖB’s advice that two previously decided brigades are being delayed. This as a consequence of both the NATO alignment and the support for Ukraine.
– There is a great understanding of this within the entire organization. The ambition at the foundation of the army remains with the number of war units and sizes. What we have done is that we have pushed that ambition forward a number of years, in favor of moving forward more quickly with parts of this development. That’s how we have to do it.
“Can’t do everything”
TT: When will Sweden have the four brigades that are established in the defense decision in 2020?
– Then we are rather forward to 2035. We are doing everything we can to reduce that delay, but it is not possible to expect an organization of our size to do all this at the same time.
Bydén believes that we have to look at what the defense is doing instead.
– It is not just a delay. We will also bring out an ability earlier that is really good, necessary and needed.