He wears a pair of thin-rimmed glasses and wears a polka-dot tie most of the time. Josep Borrel is not familiar with television sets, nor does he extricate himself from European circles. However, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy is, to a degree comparable to heads of state and generals, an essential pawn in this war. Perhaps even the King whom the Kremlin wants to eject from the chessboard. In a very short time, the member countries of the European Union managed to coordinate their military aid to Ukraine, invaded on Thursday February 24 by the Russian army. A billion euros on the table. At the center of this logistical assistance strategy: the European Union military headquarters. This permanent military structure led by the 74-year-old Spaniard coordinates European arms donations by redistributing them to the Ukrainian resistance.
At the crossroads between West and East, a logistics hub, a kind of supply hub, has been set up in Poland. The weapons are transported by truck to this strategic point, unloaded and then loaded into Ukrainian trucks or deposited in undisclosed locations. Rifles, machine guns, helmets, anti-tank missiles, shells or ammunition… Each member country is committed and wants to show solidarity. Belgium says it wants to provide 2,000 machine guns, 5,000 automatic rifles, 200 anti-tank weapons and 3,800 tons of fuel. The Netherlands refers to sniper rifles or surface-to-air missiles. Berlin promises rocket launchers. Prague of pistols. “It is a coordinated and rapid response that Europe has set up”, underlines the researcher on European security at the Institute for Strategic Research of the Military School (IRSEM), Pierre Haroche.
Sophisticated Weapons, Unsuitable Soldiers
From the reserves of 27 countries, the arsenal made available deploys a panoply of diversified and sophisticated weapons which seems unexpected for the Ukrainian troops. But do you still need to be trained to use it, notes Pierre Haroche. “What the Ukrainians needed most were sophisticated parts. The Europeans responded to them. But these weapons must be delivered with training, in good test conditions,” he notes. Ukrainian soldiers, having had little latitude to take control of military equipment, will have little chance of fully using the capabilities of the surface-to-air missiles or self-propelled howitzers sent. “Reactive rearmament is always less effective than upstream rearmament. A military strategy is established by adapting its tactics to the forces in its arsenal. Ukraine, there, cannot do it”, adds Pierre Haroche. The effect of the reinforcement of the equipment proves to be limited
With this in mind, Paris has been critical of the communication of its allies, revealing with great force the contents of the trunks they were preparing to transit. For France, opacity is an asset. “Saying what we deliver can reveal the shortcomings of Ukrainians, their needs. It also gives indications of their strategy,” confirms Pierre Haroche. Better to avoid sharing intelligence with the enemy…
A fully prepared Russia
Especially since facing the Ukrainian soldiers, the Russian soldiers have been preparing the offensive for several weeks. Deployed in rear bases along the border in the East and in Belarus, the troops have endeavored to repeat their maneuvers since the beginning of winter and the resumption of tensions between Moscow and Kiev. The Russian army has formidable weapons that the West does not enjoy. Used for the first time during the operation in Georgia in 2008, the Russian Iskander-K ballistic missiles were used in particular during strikes, at the start of the conflict, on airports and airfields. Fired from a truck, they can hit a target over 500 kilometers away. Grad missiles or thermobaric weapons are as many other equipments that Russia masters much more than the European camp. She made them. She experienced them in Syria.
“In addition, the Russian forces seem to be saving ammunition to avoid running out of everything in a few weeks. Moscow’s strategy to preserve its strategic weapons does not lead to believe that the balance of power in terms of equipment is reversing”, slice Pierre Haroche. Precise range missiles have so far been little used by the Russian army, which favors heavier weapons. This is undoubtedly what motivated the French President, Emmanuel Macron, to predict that the war would be “long”. Retaining its most sophisticated weapons is also a way for the Kremlin to dissuade European countries from full military support. The refusal of the United States of the Polish proposal to hand over its Mig-29 fighter planes to Ukraine proves it.
Battle of the air
All eyes are on the sky. This is where the conflict is playing out. For several days, Russia, with state-of-the-art equipment, has been strengthening its hold on the air. If for Pierre Haroche, the country led by Vladimir Poutine has not taken total control of the air, it is getting closer. President Zelensky knows it: Ukraine needs reinforcements in the air force. “Send us planes!” he repeated to the West on Wednesday. Bombings targeting air bases at the start of the Russian invasion affected the country’s air capabilities. In lack of gear, the pilots are in numerical inferiority compared to their adversary. If Russia were to take control of the skies, it would master the bombing of cities and could advance through the ground. A considerable strategic gain. This is where Europe’s military support can prove most useful.
Support that Moscow is watching closely. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indirectly threatened the West: “This is a very undesirable and potentially dangerous scenario.” No European country wanted until Tuesday and the position of Poland to be the first to deliver aircraft to Ukraine. Especially since air military support is more engaging than the gift of arms. “Delivering planes is much more visible. Instantly, military assistance becomes traceable,” recalls Pierre Haroche. Russia could use the delivery of planes to make Europe a player in the conflict. An escalation that the foreign ministries of each country want to avoid.
For Europe, the way that remains to be taken to support Ukraine is to maintain a constant flow of its support in terms of equipment. In this sense, two weeks after the start of the war, Josep Burrel announced a new envelope of 500 million euros in military aid, this Friday morning. A gesture that can count according to Pierre Haroche: “By being regularly supplied with weapons, Ukraine can limit its loss of positions.” If the war gets bogged down, the asymmetry of forces can be reduced. Time is no doubt playing for Ukraine, but it will bring its share of misfortunes.