The Chinese state is hardly behind the pipe break, but the sea captain may have received a bribe from Russia, says the researcher.
Jani Parkkari,
Mika Hentunen,
Sakari Nuuttila
In the investigation of the broken gas pipeline in the Gulf of Finland, the eyes have turned to Asia in recent days.
The cause of the damage to the Balticconnector gas pipeline is now suspected to be the anchor of a Chinese-owned cargo ship. The gas pipeline, the data cable between Estonia and Finland and the data cable between Estonia and Sweden were all damaged within a few hours of each other.
According to the experts interviewed by , it is clear that the ship has not broken the gas pipeline at the behest of the Chinese government.
– China has never interfered militarily in European affairs, and besides, the country has no motive for such sabotage, says the professor of East Asian studies Lauri Paltemaa from the University of Turku.
– China affects Europe economically. Such sabotage would be an extraordinary historical turn, Paltemaa continues.
A senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute agrees Jyrki Kallio.
– An attack in Europe is extremely unlikely. China could act like this in the South China Sea, but not in the Gulf of Finland, says Kallio.
China’s security policy is focused on the country’s neighboring regions.
– In China, there is very little remote work. This kind of trick does not fit China’s foreign policy profile at all, says Paltemaa.
China is not Russia’s helper
Even before the war in Ukraine – and even more with it – the US has been worried about the rapprochement between China and Russia.
However, the experts interviewed by do not believe that China could act in the Baltic Sea at Russia’s request.
– Whoops, Professor Paltemaa acknowledges.
– China does not take orders from the Kremlin. They would have nothing to lose in such an operation. Why on earth would they want to start a fight far away in Europe with NATO? the professor wonders.
Researcher Jyrki Kallio points out that China has been trying to improve its relations with Europe in recent months.
– China wants to drive a wedge into the relationship between Europe and the United States by getting closer to Europe. Such sabotage would work completely against China’s interests, says Kallio.
Paltemaa points out that China has not given proper armed support to Russia in its war against Ukraine. Even in this light, leaving as a military assistant in Europe seems even more unlikely.
A pile of rubles for a sea captain?
If China is not the state behind cutting the gas pipeline, is the only option left is pure damage to the ship’s crew?
Not necessarily, says Professor Paltemaa.
Russia has a proven tendency for various sabotages in its neighboring regions.
It has also been possible to pay the sea captain a lot of rubles for the good thing that he drags the anchor along the bottom of the Gulf of Finland.
– This idea is of course just a theory. There is apparently no evidence of this, says Paltemaa.