Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has signed the protocol on Sweden’s NATO accession, the Turkish presidential office announces on X. But it is too early to “shout hello”, according to Turkey expert Paul Levin.
– There is a split in the parliament that can make the process more difficult, he tells TV4 Nyheterna.
After Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed the protocol on Sweden’s NATO accession, the application will now be sent to the Turkish parliament for ratification.
“Glad news that Turkish President Erdoğan has now handed over the ratification documents to the Turkish parliament. /… / We look forward to becoming a member of NATO”, writes Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M) on X.
– It is a major breakthrough, of course, and exactly what Ulf Kristersson and Tobias Bilström have been waiting for, says Turkey expert and former ambassador Paul Levin to TV4 Nyheterna.
But he believes that this does not mean that the Swedish NATO application will be approved.
– That is what President Erdogan said he would do this summer. But it’s too early to say hello, says Levin.
Erdogan’s party mates can decide
The Turkey expert explains that the Swedish application must first be processed in the committee in the Turkish parliament. There, a majority is required for approval.
Whether the Swedish NATO application is approved depends on how much pressure Erdogan puts on his party and alliance partners in the MHP party, according to Levin.
Many experts warn of a conflict between Erdogan’s party and the MHP alliance, which escalated after President Erdogan fired his interior minister, according to Levin.
– Erdogan himself may want to present this to the parliament but let the parliamentarians vote as they wish. Then it is not certain that it will go through, he continues.
– What is required is that Erdogan uses the party whip. Then he can make it go through.
That’s why the announcement comes now
Paul Levin also speculates on why Erdogan chooses to make the announcement now.
– Last summer, Erdogan promised that he would present the protocol on Sweden’s NATO accession to parliament for ratification. Then it didn’t happen, and when asked why nothing happened, Erdogan blamed the summer break. Perhaps it was becoming too costly simply to drag out this process.
He also adds that NATO countries showed a united front and put pressure on both Turkey and Hungary to act during the last NATO summit.
– There may be some agreement behind the scenes that we are not aware of, he says.
Facts: Sweden’s path to NATO
Sweden applied for membership in NATO, in parallel with Finland, on 18 May 2022.
On July 5 of the same year, Sweden and Finland were formally given the status of prospective members, “invitees” in English.
For Finland, the process ended in April this year when membership became completely clear after Hungary and Turkey became the last NATO countries to ratify the country’s application.
For Sweden, 29 out of 31 countries have ratified – Turkey and Hungary remain.
In connection with the NATO summit in Vilnius at the beginning of July, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised to “as soon as possible” send the Swedish application to the parliament for ratification.
On October 23, the Turkish presidential office announced that Erdogan had signed and forwarded Sweden’s NATO application to the parliament. Hungary has said that an approval is only about “technicalities” and that the country should not be the last to ratify. But the decision has been postponed several times.