The couple was arrested by the Security Police on Tuesday morning. According to consistent media reports, the man has held several senior positions within the Swedish Armed Forces. The woman is employed at the signal intelligence agency Försvarets radioanstalt (FRA).
Neither the Swedish Armed Forces nor FRA wanted to comment on the data. Säpo has contented itself with confirming that two people have been arrested on probable cause on suspicion of gross unauthorized position with secret information and that it is a matter of “very serious crime”.
According to Wilhelm Agrell, professor of intelligence analysis, it is difficult to speculate about what the criminal suspects are when so little is known.
– It may very well be espionage, but for evidentiary reasons it is easier at an early stage to take the broader classification of gross unauthorized occupation, which includes a variety of acts – from pure carelessness to de facto espionage.
Possible spy connection
– If you have secret documents lying around at home, it is of course extremely inappropriate, but there is a very big difference to handing them over to a foreign power. It is not a difference of degree, but a difference of species.
Even Joakim von Braun, an intelligence expert with a background in Säpo and the Swedish Armed Forces, believes that the broader classification is initially a safer card.
– You start at the lowest level for which you think you have solid evidence. Then, during the journey, you can take on greater and more serious responsibilities. Based on how Säpo speaks, one can probably assume that it is probably very serious.
Peyman Kia, recently sentenced to life imprisonment for aggravated espionage, was initially suspected of aggravated unauthorized position with a secret mission, a suspicion that was later intensified.
Säpo states that “at present” there are no connections to previous cases. But according to Wilhelm Agrell, it is still entirely possible that the investigation around Kia led to the now arrested couple.
– In one espionage target, you often find clues that lead to another, even if they do not have to be connected to each other in terms of espionage. It is conceivable that one case led to the other, but they could also be completely unrelated.
Pull and counter pull
The number of cases of suspected and confirmed espionage has increased in recent years both in Sweden and the rest of the Western world. A result, both Agrell and von Braun believe, of increased intelligence activities and similarly stepped-up counter-espionage.
– The West and Sweden have stepped up their vigilance. My picture is also that the Russians seem to be more careless now than they were before. It may be due to the internal pressure to acquire intelligence and technology that you have great use for, says Joakim von Braun.
According to Wilhelm Agrell, international trust in Sweden and the Swedish intelligence service took a hit when the former Säpo employee Peyman Kia was revealed to have spied on behalf of Russia for many years. What another revelation of similar caliber would mean for the reputation remains to be seen.
– The fact that, in the case of Kia, they let in a person who was literally rampaging freely for a long time on a fairly loose basis is nothing that strengthens Sweden’s reputation. If the current disclosure were to show continued shortcomings in recruitment, review of personnel and security procedures, it is of course not good. However, it can be just the opposite if it turns out that a potentially dangerous spy has been located and neutralized at an early stage.
Decisions on possible detention are made during the day.