Since the terrorist organization Hamas carried out a surprise attack on Israel on Saturday morning, which was the starting point for a new war in the area, many countries in the West have condemned the attack and supported Israel, while several countries in the Middle East have instead supported Palestine.
But from Russia it has been quiet so far. The country has traditionally held a unique position in the region with good relations with both Palestine and Israel, and has recently strengthened its ties to the Middle East. Something that caused the country to refuse to take a stand in the rekindled conflict.
Strategic to lie low
Among other things, this has resulted in the fact that the UN Security Council, which includes Russia, during a specially convened meeting, could not come up with a statement, as all parties must be in agreement. It reports Daily Mail.
However, the fact that Russia is low can also be a conscious strategy. Among other things, in order not to draw the attention of the outside world, which since Saturday has been directed towards the war between Israel and Hamas, back to Ukraine. That’s what the American think tank thinks Institute for the Study of WarISW.
This, together with the strong relations that many countries in the West have with Israel, may in turn lead to a decrease in the military aid that Ukraine has received – not least from the United States, which has called its support for Israel “unwavering”.
– The USA’s relationship with Israel is extremely important. There are many American politicians who believe that there is no other single country that is more important to protect, says professor emeritus of political science at the Foreign Policy Institute Jan Hallenberg, who is an expert on US foreign and security policy.
“Would be disastrous”
What aid to Ukraine will look like in the future is therefore unclear. Already, the United States has sent its largest aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean, with more on the way, hoping to deter other actors, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, from entering the fray.
But if the war were to escalate despite this, there is strong support in the American parliament for prioritizing support for Israel – at the same time that support for Ukraine, which according to Jan Hallenberg is essential for them to be able to stand up to Russia, has recently questioned.
– Ukraine has slipped away and many Republicans are doubtful about whether they should continue to be helped. So if it were to go so far that more people enter the war between Israel and Hamas, the US will not hesitate to help Israel instead, he says.
What would that mean?
– It would be a disaster for Ukraine.
Benefits Russia’s war coffers
But Russian President Vladimir Putin has more things to be happy about. The war between Israel and Hamas may also fatten Russia’s own war coffers, as both gas and oil prices are affected according to The business world.
– Now Opec and Russia have managed to raise prices to levels they could only dream of in this economic climate, says Handelsbanken’s commodity analyst Christian Kopfer to the newspaper.
He further assesses that the oil price will be around 100 dollars per barrel in the next few years, compared to the bottom level last summer of 72 dollars per barrel, which would be a perfect scenario for Vladimir Putin.