“I really was a kid. It’s incredible!” The sentence is pronounced with a smile tinged with astonishment. François-Xavier Bellamy recently came across an extract from a 2019 European debate. His youthful face surprised him, this Versailles elected official launched at the age of 33 into the national arena by Laurent Wauquiez. Five years have passed. To tell the truth, his features are barely more marked, the MEP has not lost his babyish air. But he gained ground. The head of the Les Républicains (LR) delegation in the European Parliament is number 2 in the party since Eric Ciotti was elected president. The man is leading a resounding return to school, between media interventions and participation in right-wing demonstrations. Here, a detour to the Apple Festival of the president of the Normandy region, the centrist Hervé Morin. There, a stopover at the Loire deputy Antoine Vermorel-Marques. Finally, he publishes a new book, Hope, published by Grasset on October 11.
You have to show yourself well. Eric Ciotti will designate LR’s head of list in the European elections within a few weeks. François-Xavier Bellamy wants to lead this battle, which is crucial for the future of the party. If it does not cross the 5% mark, the right will disappear from the European Parliament. Might as well turn off the light. “I want to play the return match,” confided the MEP in March. But he immediately warns: he will happily give up his place to a candidate deemed more capable of getting LR out of the doldrums. Assuming an ambition without suggesting that it outweighs the collective interest: this is a well-established discourse.
“What’s the difference between Maréchal and him?”
On the right, the Bellamy case arouses ambivalent feelings. His record in Strasbourg is unanimously praised. Now familiar with the complex mysteries of the European Union, he has obtained several legislative victories. The latest: the – symbolic – ban on surrogacy (GPA) within the EU. Eric Ciotti praises this record and noted the elected official’s remarkable speech to the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, which flooded social networks. The president of LR remembers his recent conversation with a pollster. Choosing a head of the list who does not use the ballot as a stepping stone to national ambitions is appreciated by the French, this opinion specialist assured him. Another good point.
Yes, but there you go. A successful mandate is no guarantee of a victorious candidacy. On the right, Bellamy’s name remains associated with the disaster of the 2019 European elections: the party only received 8.48% of the vote, pushing its then president, Laurent Wauquiez, to resign. His conservative tropism is sometimes considered incompatible with the reconquest of the Macronist right, Eric Ciotti’s obsession with a view to 2027. His ideological proximity to Marion Maréchal questions his political space. “What is the difference between her and him? I don’t have the answer,” confides a worried LR executive. A party leader sums up: “Bellamy is saved by Pécresse’s 4.5% in the presidential election. If it had been 11, he would have automatically been out.”
Lessons from 2019
Here is François-Xavier Bellamy rehabilitated by the decay of the right. Seen like that, it’s not very engaging. The 2019 vintage was a disappointment, can the 2024 vintage be a grand cru? The person concerned believes in it and has learned several lessons from his failure. Five years ago, the MEP had increased the number of meetings, up to three per day. The fervor in the rooms misled the candidate, intoxicated by this success of esteem. “The heart of the electoral campaign will be played out in the media and, in particular, on television,” he assures L’Express. “When we hold meetings, we speak to people who are often convinced but who do not make the decisions. large masses of a national election.”
He judges privately that the right, despite its 70 proposals, lacked a strong message in 2019. His intuition: insist on the defense of French interests in Europe and praise its legislative work as such. “We must never get into the question ‘are we for or against Europe?’ If the equation is that, we have lost. Who is for? Macron. Against? Le Pen. We are holding the only sensible discourse which consists of saying that Europe is a reality and that we must direct it “a more effective way. But we need to formulate this idea so that others are forced to define themselves in relation to us.” And don’t talk to him about an asphyxiated right. The RN? He wears out his microscopic assessment. His supposed proximity to Marion Maréchal? The sign that he can stop the hemorrhage of voters captured by Reconquest. The Renew group? He classifies him on the left, far from the shift to the center right of Emmanuel Macron.
Well-versed in the media exercise
The Europeans will be played on television. Sometimes you have to show vice. Pretend to answer a question, hide your game to avoid controversy. The right keeps the Vincent Lambert affair in mind. In 2019, François-Xavier Bellamy diverted his camp by opposing the cessation of the treatments provided to this quadriplegic patient in a vegetative state for more than ten years. It is generally agreed that this exit cost the right valuable points.
During the 2019 campaign, the young candidate took advice from Senator LR Bruno Retailleau to refine his public expression. The media have gotten into the habit of questioning him about his societal conservatism, an opinion that he does not brandish as a standard. “He asked me: ‘How would you argue?’ remembers the Vendéen. We discussed the possibility of developing an argument that does not betray convictions and that he is not attacked by those who hold different convictions.” This had not avoided the mistake. Five years later, François-Xavier Bellamy is accustomed to the media exercise and avoids traps. An LR strategist warns: “He still lacks political sense and situational intelligence. Those around him are basically too similar to him, everyone tends to consider that the right thinks like them.”
“If he gets a bad score, we will all be infected”
Concerning the choice of the head of the European list, Eric Ciotti has not yet decided. The boss of LR understands the stakes of his decision. “If Bellamy gets a bad score, we will all be infected,” he judges privately. So the deputy for Alpes-Maritimes consults and looks for the four-leaf clover. He surveyed the mayor of Cannes, David Lisnard. In vain. Names are circulating – Michel Barnier or Vincent Jeanbrun – and fueling the media soap opera. A fervent supporter of the Bellamy option, Bruno Retailleau is worried about this delay: “With this false suspense, we will end up weakening it if we wait too long. Doubt opens up the series of rumors and little stories.”
The boss of LR is in no hurry. Perhaps François-Xavier Bellamy also suffers from a lack of internal support. He is certainly close to the centrist Hervé Morin and David Lisnard and established political affinities during the campaign for the presidency of LR in the fall of 2022. This does not go any further. “Bellamysm” is not born, the MEP does not carry a current behind him. “He’s a loner and he has few allies,” notes an LR leader who appreciates him. “People find him brilliant, but he’s not a general.” An executive confirms: “He lacks the leadership skills to lead behind him.” A new challenge to take on?