Acknowledging the facts is the beginning of wisdom.
One fact is that the front lines have hardly changed in Ukraine for almost a year.
The great breakthrough of the Ukrainian forces, hoped for in the West, has not been seen.
– The Russian troops have managed to dig into the positions, and neither side seems to be capable of a decisive attack anymore, says a senior researcher Samuel Charap from the American RAND think tank, which specializes in security issues.
Granting a draw is difficult for many.
In the early stages of the war, the Ukrainian armed forces positively surprised Western military experts. Today, similar surprises are still expected, even though the nature of war has changed significantly.
Most experts comment on the war in Ukraine based on public sources and the news flow they see.
– Information is constantly coming from Ukraine about small tactical changes on the front. This constant flow of information has blurred the overall picture. The fact is that a military solution has seemed unlikely for a long time, says Charap.
It’s no small thing.
– If fighting does not lead to victory, then it is worth negotiating, Charap continues.
In Europe, this kind of speech has hardly been heard – or at least not wanted to be heard.
In the public debate, even the slightest willingness to negotiate is easily interpreted as an admission of weakness, which is automatically considered to promote the Kremlin’s goals.
– Of course, it’s not an either-or solution. Military pressure can be maintained during negotiations or even increased, the researcher says.
“A peace agreement is not possible”
According to Charap, a wide-ranging political peace agreement, in which decisions are made about the management of land areas and the normalization of relations, is no longer possible.
Too many Ukrainian civilians have died and the countries’ views on borders are completely opposite.
Charap emphasizes that legal compliance with Russia’s demands is not worth it under any circumstances. It would be rewarding the Kremlin for aggression and undermining international rules.
However, it would be possible to achieve a ceasefire. The state of war between the countries would continue, but the weapons would be put down for a while.
– The Korean War stopped in a ceasefire, a truce, which is still in force. Such a model should be explored in Ukraine as well.
The alternative is a long war and more deaths.
What is the status of Ukraine after the war?
Charap believes that Ukraine’s security policy position after the war will be at the heart of any ceasefire negotiations.
The researcher considers granting Ukraine a strong security guarantee like NATO membership problematic.
– Declaring such a goal would give Russia a reason to continue the attack. They would only have something to lose in negotiations.
According to the researcher, a better example of the way to organize relationships could be found in the Middle East.
Israel and the United States are close partners, but legally Washington does not equate an attack on Israel with an attack on the United States.
At the same time, it is clear to everyone that the United States supports Israel, for example, in the war against Hamas.
Of course, Ukraine itself has the last word on Ukraine’s foreign policy.
However, Kyiv needs to understand the realities of international politics, at least for now.
– US support will not continue forever, says Charap.
Wrong time, place and opponent
In the US, opposition to supporting Ukraine is growing day by day.
At the forefront, far-right congressmen have demanded the end of support, but it’s not just loud populism.
Charap believes that not even the president Joe Biden’s the administration wants to commit to a war lasting several years in Europe.
War is expensive and more importantly, the opponent is wrong.
China is a strategic challenger to the United States. Both Biden and his predecessor have been trying for years to shift the focus of the country’s armed forces towards Asia.
– Of course, the war in Ukraine disturbs concentration. It takes up a lot of officials’ time, says Charap.
It’s not just about resources.
While the war weakens Russia, it also drives it increasingly into the arms of China, a dangerous development for the United States.
Trump is approaching
Former President of the United States Donald Trump has said he would end the war between Ukraine and Russia in 24 hours by forcing both sides to the negotiating table.
In practice, this would mean that Ukraine would have to hand over the territories it occupied to Russia.
Charap believes that the Russian president Vladimir Putin waiting for Trump to return to the White House. An unpredictable leader would bring disunity to the ranks of the West.
According to Charap, it is very difficult to assess how the “Trump card” will affect Kiev’s way of seeing the future of war.
– If I were in charge of Ukraine, I would try to finish everything as much as possible before Trump. I would try to minimize his chance of influence.
This means that Ukraine may still be busy.
The ceasefire that ended the Korean War once required two years of negotiations and a total of 575 meetings.
The next president of the United States is scheduled to take office in January 2025.