If more countries in the Middle East are drawn into the war – which has already claimed more than 2,000 lives since the Hamas attack on Israel last Saturday – there is a great risk that it will affect the supply of oil and thus push up the world market price, according to the IMF. And if oil prices rise by 10 percent, that could translate into a global inflationary boost of 0.4 percentage points, according to Gita Gopinath, who is first deputy managing director of the IMF.
— If it develops into a larger conflict, and it causes the price of oil to rise, it has an economic effect, she says in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
For global growth, this would in turn mean a decline of 0.15 percent, according to the IMF’s economists.
The price of so-called fuel oil, a benchmark in the commodity market, has since the Hamas attack on Saturday risen from just below 84 dollars per barrel to over 87 dollars per barrel.
Meanwhile, the world market price of gold – seen by many as a safe haven in times of trouble – has risen from around $1,820 an ounce to $1,875 an ounce.