It was during the night of Sunday that the pressure suddenly dropped in the eight-mile-long Balticconnector gas pipeline in the Gulf of Finland between Finland and Estonia. The sudden drop turned out to be a leak in the gas line.
In addition to the leak, damage was also discovered to a data cable that runs between Finland and Estonia.
Is in Russia’s interest
The cause of the injuries is not yet known and an investigation is underway in cooperation between Finland and Estonia.
According to conflict researcher Marco Nilsson, it may be a Russian reaction after Finland’s NATO membership, which upset Russia.
– We don’t know who is really behind this yet, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it turns out to be Russia. When you look at who could be behind it, you have to think about who would have an interest in carrying out such an attack. And Russia has a foreign policy that aims to create confusion and chaos in this area, says Marco Nilsson, conflict researcher and associate professor of political science at Jönköping University.
– After Finland joined NATO, they waited for a reaction from Russia to send a signal to the whole of NATO that it is dangerous to support Ukraine in the war, he continues.
If it is Russia that is behind it, then it is an escalation of the already frosty relations between NATO and Russia, and an attack on Finnish energy infrastructure, Nilsson believes.
Even if the gas pipeline does not have the same capacity as, for example, Nord Stream, which runs along the coast of Sweden, it is “extremely serious”, believes Nilsson, who adds that the sabotage mostly has a symbolic and security political significance.
Don’t believe in military response
Finland’s Prime Minister, Petteri Orpo says that he is already conducting talks with other NATO countries and with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
Nilsson does not believe that the sabotage could lead to any military response from Finland or NATO, but that it could become a matter of diplomatic markings against Russia in the form of military preparation and security measures.
– We don’t know exactly what it will lead to, but NATO will certainly avoid escalating the conflict as much as possible, he says.
The price of gas is soaring
With regard to the gas prices that are now rushing, Nilsson believes that it is a question of temporary price changes, but that the event has no major effect on Finland’s gas supply, which according to him will stabilize shortly.
– Gas stocks are quite full in Europe, but electricity prices usually follow the gas price. So there may be a temporary peak, but this does not mean that the gas supply for the winter is threatened.
– There is no reason to be very worried, says Nilsson.
The sabotage could also have consequences for Sweden because the Nordic countries have a common electricity market. This could lead to the electricity price in Sweden being affected if the electricity price in Finland rises, he believes.
Double attacks
Nilsson explains that there may have been two different attacks in two different places.
– It is very interesting that the gas pipeline has been damaged in the Finnish economic zone but that the internet cable between Finland and Estonia has been damaged in the Estonian zone.
– Then we possibly have two different attacks in two different places.
He also does not believe that the sabotage of the data cable will have major consequences in terms of internet connections, since it was a spare cable that had been sabotaged.
Facts: The gas line
The gas pipeline is the first and only one that connects the gas networks in Finland and Estonia. It runs for eight miles along the bottom of the Gulf of Finland, from Finnish Ingå to Estonian Paldiski and towards a further connection in the Baltics.
The construction of the line was partly financed by the EU as a common interest for all the countries of the Union. It began to be used in 2020 and has been described as an important connection for Finland to the European gas market.