Back to square one ? A sales operation at cost price made it possible to keep the liter of gasoline and diesel below the 2 euros per liter mark. But the Hamas attack on Israel on Saturday October 7 raises the prospect of a conflagration in the Middle East, and a new explosion in prices at the pump.
First of all because the region concentrates 50% of the world’s oil reserves. Then, because if Iran’s involvement in Hamas’ surprise operation were proven, this could give rise to a new round of international sanctions against the Islamic Republic, the world’s eighth largest producer of black gold. Furthermore, the Persian Gulf region, with the Strait of Hormuz in particular, is crucial for global oil supplies.
In the aftermath of the outbreak, markets are closely watching developments in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. While oil prices jumped by nearly 5% on Monday, they stabilized on Tuesday, October 10. Having gone from 84.5 to 88 dollars at the start of the week, the price of a barrel of Brent has since fallen slightly to around 87.7 dollars. At 11:30 a.m., it reached $88.01. The same goes for a barrel of WTI, or West Texas Intermediate, which stood at $86.27, compared to 82.8 at the end of last week.
Since the offensive began, observers have been cautious. In a note published Monday, IFPEN estimated that the Hamas attack should not lead to a surge in prices, as producing countries are not threatened. A situation which could, however, evolve in the event of regional contagion.