“Citizens of Israel, we are at war.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised a violent response this Saturday, October 7, after a major military operation launched from the Gaza Strip by Hamas against the Jewish state. This umpteenth outbreak of violence erupts on the last day of the Jewish holidays of Sukkot in Israel, while the country is living in slow motion and many pilgrims and tourists have flocked during this school vacation period. It also comes fifty years and one day after the start of the Arab-Israeli war of 1973 which resulted in the death of 2,600 Israelis and at least 9,500 dead and missing on the Arab side in three weeks of combat.
Hamas fighters have also infiltrated Israeli territory, carrying out ground fighting. While on social networks, numerous videos attest to the taking hostage of Israeli civilians by soldiers of the armed wing of Hamas. “The violence has reached its peak,” Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, Emeritus University Professor, president of the Institute for Mediterranean Research and Studies – Middle East (Iremmo), told L’Express. Interview.
L’Express: Is the timing chosen for this Hamas attack, almost 50 years to the day after the Yom Kippur War, a coincidence?
Jean-Paul Chagnollaud: I think there is perhaps a very distant connection, at least in the approach. In 1973, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat chose to attack Israel after trying to diplomatically recover lost territories, in this case Sinai. Today, the attack carried out by Hamas, as reprehensible as it may be, is part of a warlike logic. It is much more complex than an act of terrorism.
The Palestinian question has been completely forgotten for years. Political and diplomatic negotiations are at a standstill and everyone is losing interest internationally. Especially since for several months, and particularly since the Donald Trump era, there has been a process of normalization of Israel with the Arab States – and in particular Saudi Arabia – which can lead to a marginalization of the Palestinian cause. We must think about this attack in a historical and geopolitical way.
Like 50 years ago, Israel seems to have been taken by surprise. Is this a failure of the Israeli intelligence services?
First, it is no coincidence that Hamas chose to attack on a Saturday, when Israel is in full Sabbath. It is a moment of relaxation in Israeli society. Furthermore, we can never resolve a fundamentally political issue by security means. We may multiply measures and give considerable resources to the services in question, but that does not solve the problem. The adversary always finds loopholes.
Furthermore, the attack is also unique in its configuration: by sea, by land, by sky. How to interpret this?
It is this complexity which means that we cannot speak of terrorism, but of an act of war. It is an armed operation carried out by a military organization very representative of part of the Palestinian people.
It is obvious that this attack was prepared for a long time and that it is part of the strategy of Hamas, which is certainly an Islamist organization, but also a nationalist one. The leaders of the organization thought in geopolitical terms, in terms of the balance of power, in a situation where there is absolute marginalization of the Palestinian question. This time, the violence seems to have reached its peak.
Were there any warning signs?
No. I have been following the case for a very long time, and such an attack was not predictable. I was sure there would be other deadly clashes, but not on this scale.
According to the European Union and numerous testimonies relayed on social networks, Hamas took Israeli civilians hostage, but also soldiers. This is new in this conflict…
The principle is not new, they have done it before, but certainly not in an operation of this scale. By these kidnappings of civilians, they are attacking something very important. The Israelis will do everything to recover citizens taken hostage by Hamas. These reprehensible hostage-takings will be a challenge for the coming days, including in Israel’s military response. They risk playing the role of bargaining chip between Gaza and Tel Aviv.
What can we expect next?
We can expect an increase in violence, with a significant Israeli response, already announced this Saturday morning by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Two questions now arise. The first: is the Jewish state considering a land operation? The second: how will the Arabs of Israel and the Palestinians of the West Bank react?