Israelis in swimsuits in Dubai, hundreds of thousands of spectators in Qatar to watch football matches and even a few handfuls of Westerners visiting the still smoking ruins of Syria. Traditionally considered a risk zone, the Middle East is going through a period of relative stabilization, with the conclusion of the war in Yemen and a reduction in tensions between Arab countries and Iran.
The region is taking the opportunity to diversify its economy and highlight its assets, with a new El Dorado: tourism. David Khalfa, co-director of the North Africa and Middle East Observatory at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, closely follows these movements and analyzes the consequences of these visitors on regional geopolitics.
L’Express: the Middle East suffers from a rather negative image, built by wars and insecurity, but its countries are opening up to the world in a spectacular way. Do you consider tourism as a marker of the transformations underway in the region?
David Khalfa: Without a doubt. The Middle East is going through a structural change, which can be explained by the desire of the Gulf petromonarchies – but not only them – to diversify their economies. These countries have understood that they will not be able to benefit from the oil windfall for the next forty or fifty years, and they have identified tourism as a strategic sector.
Turning the page on the “Arab Spring”
Two major trends cross the region: international tourism and intraregional tourism. The latter, traditionally quite low, is increasing sharply, which has concrete political consequences. The Middle East is seeking to stabilize and turn the page on the “Arab Spring”, with a center of gravity which has moved from the Maghreb to the Gulf countries, in particular with Saudi Arabia which is establishing itself as a country of the future for the tourism. This improvement also comes from the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel, and allowed better regional integration of Israel. This normalization has caused an explosion in Israeli tourism to countries signatory to the Abraham Accords.
Do these massive arrivals of Israeli tourists in the United Arab Emirates, for example, play a role in the evolution of political and diplomatic relations between these countries?
Yes. Unlike the “cold peaces” already signed by Israel with Jordan and Egypt, the Abraham Accords are intended to facilitate society-to-society relations, and therefore to change reciprocal perceptions between Jews and Arabs. This evolution is being built by an exponential increase in cultural, commercial, diplomatic and security exchanges. Tourism, from the start, was identified as a key sector for improving Israel’s image, which until then had been very negative in the Arab world.
Last year, Qatar hosted the FIFA World Cup, one of the most popular events in the world. Is this a turning point for the region’s image?
I think so. Qataris feared a boycott, but they experienced a considerable influx of tourists. They took the opportunity to communicate quite effectively about their culture of welcome and hospitality. Sport constitutes a strategic sector for these countries, which engage in impressive competition to host international competitions. The Saudis have positioned themselves on Formula 1, golf and even e-sport, a very big market for the region.
These events make it possible to change the perception of these countries and, for them, to hire “ambassadors” like Karim Benzema in Saudi Arabia, but also Cristiano Ronaldo, who plays in the local championship. With sport and tourism, the Gulf countries are increasing their capacity for seduction, and therefore their power. These countries understood that this was not only a question of hard power, but that, on the contrary, their military capabilities have damaged their international image, particularly with the war in Yemen. The detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, initiated last March, can be interpreted in this context, with the Saudis’ desire to position themselves for the next thirty years as a major regional, technological and economic power. Which implies stability and security in the Middle East.
Sport, like culture, constitutes a major lever for these countries. Concerts by major international pop stars like Rihanna or Madonna, the 2020 Universal Exhibition in Dubai, the Louvre Abu Dhabi, which attracted more than 3.7 million visitors to the United Arab Emirates…, everything is done to attract tourists, who now represent a significant share of the GDP of these countries. Tourism still remains insignificant compared to oil, but the increase is very clear and gives an idea of the direction these countries want to take in the coming decades.
Tourism involves opening your society to the outside world. Can this development influence the political and social development of these hitherto rather closed countries?
This is a major subject for these authoritarian regimes. Syria is the most striking example: tourism, particularly Western tourism, has resumed for two years, with unreliable figures, since they are provided by the authorities, but which are estimated at several thousand visitors. French, German and English operators praise the merits of Syria, which has returned to normal. This image, which takes up the narrative of power, is completely out of step with reality.
Countries that draw inspiration from the Chinese model
In the Gulf, the hope that this opening of Saudi Arabia and the Emirates will result in a political liberalization of these regimes remains very low. Today, these countries are inspired by the Chinese “model”: authoritarian governance, with relative openness in terms of cultural and societal liberalism which makes it possible to attract tourists and capitalize on foreign investments.
Can this openness create new aspirations for young people?
In any case, this is their hope: 65% of Middle Easterners are under 30 years old, this generation is hyperconnected, everyone uses applications like TikTok or WhatsApp, and obviously they watch with relish what is happening in the Emirates a little more liberal like Abu Dhabi, and even more towards the West. The bourgeoisie, particularly Emirati and Saudi, is increasingly training abroad, in England and the United States on the best campuses of the Ivy League, which brings together eight private universities in the American Northeast. They taste freedom there.
We look at these questions with a Western, even European, eye, but the future of tourism in the Middle East also passes through Asia. How important is tourism from this continent becoming for the region?
The Asian pivot of the countries of the Middle East, in particular the Gulf, constitutes a long-term strategy and is not reduced to the restoration of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia [NDLR : amorcé sous l’égide de la Chine], which reflects Beijing’s growing involvement in this region. In the same way, Chinese tourism is developing in the Middle East, with Arab operators who will flirt, via influencers, with the Chinese bourgeoisie, who spend a lot of money and are mainly interested in culture and history. However, these Arab countries are targeting high-end tourism. They implement their strategy by training tourist agents in Mandarin whom they send to study in China. This is a considerable financial windfall, which also helps improve Beijing’s diplomatic relations with Middle Eastern countries.