During two months spent in the United States this summer, I never stopped asking a simple question of all the journalists, academics and analysts I met: “Who will be the next president of the United States?” The reaction was generally the same: first there was a clear hesitation, then they responded: “Well, probably Joe Biden, but…”
This “but” was followed by a long list of concerns, partly relating to deeper trends, but above all to the aging and fragile aspect of the 80-year-old president. Often, the conversation ended with my interlocutor asserting that it would be better for Joe Biden to step aside, in order to let a younger candidate play the age card against 77-year-old Donald Trump.
Biden was a good president of the United States. Although the withdrawal from Afghanistan was chaotic, it handled the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine well. He presides over a remarkably dynamic economy, with New Deal-style public spending that accelerates the ecological transition and creates jobs. But if he stumbles – physically, mentally or politically – during the grueling marathon that is a US presidential campaign, and lets Trump come back, that’s the only thing Joe Biden will be remembered for.
More and more inaudible
In a recent NBC poll, Trump and Biden were neck and neck, with 46% each. Any number of factors unrelated to the character and performance of either candidate could tip such a close election. In the country’s hyperpolarized media environment, many Republican voters simply don’t see that the economy is doing well. AI will add to the already significant possibilities for disinformation, with Vladimir Putin certainly keen to tip the scales in favor of Trump. “Third candidate” initiatives, such as the well-intentioned centrist No Labels proposal and intellectual activist Cornel West’s progressive, environmental campaign, are likely to take more votes from Democrats than Republicans.
Even more worrying for Democrats, Black, Hispanic and other non-white voters tend to shift from Democrats to Republicans and, in particular, from Biden to Trump. There are likely sociological and historical explanations for this, as well as the strange appeal of Trump himself, but there is little doubt that Biden’s age and frailty play a role.
In a recent poll, 3 in 4 Americans said Joe Biden was too old for a second term at the end of which he would be 86 years old. Only half of those surveyed expressed the same concern about Trump. I spoke with four people who have seen President Biden up close in recent months. They told me that he was doing well mentally, but that he was physically showing that he had aged. One of them noted that her voice would sometimes weaken, to the point of becoming almost inaudible at the end of a sentence.
A Brezhnev gerontocracy in Washington
All of this will be mercilessly highlighted in the twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week media coverage of a presidential election campaign. A simple fall by Republican candidate Bob Dole during a campaign rally played a role in his defeat in 1996. And Dole was just a young man of 73, in a calmer media environment.
Biden has another handicap. Due to his age, attention will be focused more particularly on his running mate, who could replace him. But the vice president, Kamala Harris, is not a great electoral asset and is hardly convincing as a possible “leader of the free world.” Despite the initial enthusiasm she generated, she appeared to be marginalized compared to the president, her approval rating is lower than Biden’s and she has had almost no impact on the international stage.
Of course, Trump has, on his side, heavy liabilities – especially the multiple lawsuits which take up a lot of his time and undermine the financing of his campaign. If Jack Smith, the prosecutor leading the central case involving possible fraud in the 2020 presidential election, is as effective as some think, Trump could even be in prison when Americans vote next November. Yet, surprisingly to an outside observer, there appears to be no indication that these prosecutions have so far seriously damaged his electoral prospects.
Obviously, Biden’s withdrawal at this late stage would also carry risks. Some observers fear that the Democratic Party’s fragile rainbow coalition could tear itself apart if it were to find a new candidate. A former congressman disagrees, pointing to the disciplining effect of Trump’s threat. There are certainly credible candidates from the younger generation, such as Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (who would then be the first Jewish president of the United States), Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (who would then be the first female president), or California Governor Gavin Newsom.
Not only could they turn the age card against Trump, but they would also rejuvenate the image of the United States in the world. For now, we Europeans gaze with astonishment at what seems to us to be a Brezhnev gerontocracy in Washington. Biden, 80 years old and soon to be 81 years old. Trump, 77 years old. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, 81, freezing for half a minute like an old desktop computer with bad Wi-Fi. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who at the The 83-year-old is running for re-election to his elected seat in California. Seriously ?
Crisis of the West
One thing is clear, however: the only person who can make this decision is Joe Biden, along with his wife, Jill. If this were to happen, it would be best if it happened quickly, so that young candidates can declare themselves, raise enough funds, organize national campaigns, and then one of them can be selected and choose a running mate credible. “It has to be before Thanksgiving,” exclaimed one longtime observer of American politics. Or in two months.
At this point, some American readers might exclaim, “Who is this Brit telling us what we should do?” All I have to say is: “Sorry, but it’s not just your future that this electoral duel will decide.”
On our side of the Atlantic, several interesting elections are on the horizon: a crucial Polish election next month, which could determine the future of a fragile democracy; elections to the European Parliament next June, which could mark a sharp turn towards the populist right; a British election, which could see post-Brexit Britain return to something vaguely resembling sanity; maybe even a Ukrainian presidential election. None of these European elections will be as important for Europe as the American election.
A second Trump presidency would be a disaster for the United States. It would also be a catastrophe for Ukraine, an emergency for Europe and a crisis for the West. If Biden steps down now, Democrats around the world will pay tribute to him, while American Democrats will be able to choose a younger candidate to take on Trump – and perhaps even inspire the world with American dynamism again.
* Historian and essayist, the British Timothy Garton Ash is professor of European studies at the University of Oxford. This year he published Homelands. A Personal History of Europe (in English, not translated).