It takes trained eyes to see this. But a detail on the map published on August 28 by the Chinese Ministry of Natural Resources could have triggered a diplomatic clash with Russia. On the route, the island of Bolshoi Ussuriysk, at the confluence of the Amur and Ussuri rivers, appears to be entirely part of China, at the northeastern tip of the country. This territory of some 300 square kilometers, strategically located near the Russian city of Khabarovsk, was conquered by Soviet troops in 1929. But to appease Chinese demands, the island was divided in two in 2004, with China recovering the western part and Russia guarding the eastern part.
With this discreet annexation without a shot fired, did China seek to test the reaction of its neighbor, made even more dependent on it by the war in Ukraine? Yet quick to criticize the slightest lack of respect, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov put things into perspective, citing a simple “technical problem”. Let it be said, the relationship is in good shape between Beijing and Moscow! Especially at a time when the tandem has a string of diplomatic successes. The two autocratic regimes obtained the enlargement of the Brics this summer – the group which also includes Brazil, India and South Africa will open up to six new countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. And, last month, the final G20 communiqué, unlike that of 2022, no longer directly mentioned “Russian” aggression against Ukraine.
In Beijing, Xi Jinping will offer an unexpected platform to Putin
Not only has China never condemned the invasion, but it provides valuable support to the Kremlin, both economic and diplomatic, which has not weakened after more than nineteen months of unjustifiable and murderous conflict. Xi, who had booked his first visit to Putin this year after being reappointed for a third term, will welcome back his “dear friend” this month, during a forum on the new Silk Roads. This will be the 41st time that the two “strong men” have met since Xi Jinping came to power! An unexpected platform for the head of the Kremlin, who has not left his country since the arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court last March.
Begun in the early 1990s, the rapprochement accelerated in 2014, when Russia found itself isolated by international sanctions, after its annexation of Crimea. A new milestone was reached in February 2022, at the Beijing Olympic Games, where Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin staged their famous “limitless friendship” between their regimes, a few weeks before Moscow attacked Ukraine. Did Xi know? Still, the war has not disturbed them. On the contrary. The two partners continue to carry out joint military exercises – as in July, in the Sea of Japan – and Russia has become China’s main oil supplier.
Displaying such osmosis was not easy, as the shared history of these former empires was so conflicting. The first dissensions date back to the “unequal treaties” imposed by the colonial powers between 1858 and 1901. During the carving up of the Asian giant, under a Qing dynasty shaken by the Second Opium War, Tsarist Russia took the biggest share of the pie : almost two million square kilometers, an area much larger than that of France and Germany combined! In the Chinese Far East, “Russia appropriates the northern part and the eastern coast of Manchuria, depriving China of access to the Sea of Japan”, recalls Pierre Andrieu, author of Geopolitics of Russian-Chinese relations (PUF). And in Central Asia, it seizes part of the territories currently corresponding to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
On the brink of nuclear war
The creation of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 did not really change the balance of power. “Despite the proclaimed ‘fraternity’ between the USSR and Beijing, relations were from the start marked by mistrust” between the two communist regimes, continues the ex-diplomat. To clearly show who is boss, Stalin made Mao wait two months in a dacha on the outskirts of Moscow before signing the Sino-Soviet pact of February 14, 1950. “Mao complained of having nothing else to do but ‘eat, sleep and go to the toilet'”, says Pierre Andrieu.
Rural and impoverished by years of civil war, China follows the very industrial Soviet model. Thousands of Russian experts were sent to its soil to install the first factories (steel, chemicals, textiles) and lay railway tracks. But the idyll is short-lived. Relations worsened after the death of Stalin in 1953, with Mao dreaming of taking the head of the international communist movement. During the cultural revolution (1966-1976), very angry against “de-Stalinization” under Khrushchev, he launched a crusade against “revisionism and Soviet social-imperialism”. It’s the breakup. In 1969, a series of armed incidents on a border island even brought the two rivals to the brink of nuclear war.
Some Chinese researchers note that the war in Ukraine has complicated their country’s post-epidemic economic recovery, and the refusal to condemn Moscow has tarnished its image in the West. “But for now, in Xi Jinping’s eyes, the advantages of such a rapprochement far outweigh the disadvantages,” summarizes Alice Ekman, analyst in charge of Asia and China at the Institute of Studies. security of the European Union. It is first of all crucial for Beijing that its 4,200 kilometers of border with Russia are secure in the event of a conflict with the United States around Taiwan. Above all, the two autocrats are united by their opposition to Washington, perceived as a security and political threat.
China wants to reshape the international system dominated by Washington
And even if the relationship is increasingly unbalanced economically – China’s GDP is ten times that of China – Russia remains a major diplomatic player, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, with nuclear weapons. Beijing needs him to shake up a world order dominated by the United States and make it more favorable to its interests. Increasingly well-established, the Sino-Russian couple should further intensify their diplomatic cooperation. “The most promising forums are BRICS and the SCO [NDLR : Organisation de coopération de Shanghai, qui comprend plusieurs pays d’Asie centrale, l’Inde, l’Iran et le Pakistan]created to exclude the West and concentrate the efforts of China and Russia to reshape the international system”, insists Bonnie Lin, researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in an article for Foreign Policy. Clubs brought to s enlarge further and intended to increase their influence over emerging powers.
Cemented by the proximity between the two leaders, Russian-Chinese relations are currently solid. The fact remains that “cultural and civilizational incomprehension” has not disappeared, points out Pierre Andrieu. And that the wounds of the past have not all healed. A part of the Chinese elite has not lost hope of recovering the Chinese “Far East”. Enough to derail the relationship? “This is a problem that the Chinese would like to resolve in the long term, but for the moment, they do not need this territory which they dominate economically,” underlines Bobo Lo, associate researcher at Ifri.
“The greatest danger would be a period of strong instability in China,” continues this specialist. “If its economy collapses or if it launches into a conflict with the United States and loses it.” Likewise, an implosion of the Putin regime would result in a situation as uncertain as it is perilous for Beijing. For the moment, the world’s second largest economic power is careful to treat Russia as an equal. But if the gap continues to widen, “there is a risk that the Chinese will become arrogant and, for example, stop considering Central Asia as a Russian sphere of influence,” imagines Bobo Lo. A Russia in decline could then, according to this analyst, close in on itself and, blinded by resentment, attack China in an unpredictable way. But at a time when Xi is preparing to roll out the red carpet for the Russian dictator, we are still far from that.