People have created a classic enemy image of each other. Armenians and Azerbaijanis have a bloody past behind them.
This is how the researcher describes it Kristiina Silvan the reason for the ongoing mass exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan seized Nagorno-Karabakh in a brief but massive offensive that began two weeks ago.
About 120,000 Armenians have lived in Nagorno-Karabakh. According to Armenia, more than 100,000 of them have already arrived in Armenia.
The capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert, is now described as a deserted city.
Behind two bloody wars
Enemy images have their roots in the wars between Armenians and Azeris, where both have committed war crimes.
– There is no trust in the other party. Armenians leave simply because they fear for their lives under Azeri rule, says Silvan, who works as a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute.
The first Karabakh war was fought between 1988 and 1994 and was won by the Armenians. The majority of the residents of the area were Armenians, but there was also a significant Azeri minority in the area.
At that time, hundreds of thousands of Azeris had to flee from Nagorno-Karabakh and the territories occupied by Armenians in Azerbaijan.
According to Silvan, the fate of the Azeris in the 1990s partly explains the latest military operation.
– In a way, the Armenians will now suffer the same fate.
The Armenian-majority Nagorno-Karabakh was an autonomous part of the Azerbaijan Soviet Republic during the Soviet era.
In 1988, Armenians and Azeris clashed, and with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the situation expanded into a full-scale war, in which the Armenians took over the region.
The surface area of the area is approximately 4,400 square kilometers.
Armenians also occupied territories from Azerbaijan in addition to Nagorno-Karabakh.
2020 Azerbaijan had strengthened its armed forces and started to take back territories. In September 2023, Azerbaijan took control of all of Nagorno-Karabakh. Most of the population fled.
The second Karabakh war was recently fought in 2020 and was won by Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan committed war crimes at that time, which are still in people’s minds.
Human rights organization According to Amnesty International both sides violated the laws of war.
In addition, Armenians have behind them the mass destruction that took place in the Ottoman Empire under Turkey at the beginning of the 20th century, the Armenian genocide. Hundreds of thousands died. It accelerates fears, Silvan reminds.
Azerbaijan denies accusations of ethnic cleansing
Among others, the leader of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan says that the people of Nagorno-Karabakh were subjected to ethnic cleansing.
Former diplomat Ferid Shefiyev heads the AIR research institute in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. He says in an interview with that Azerbaijan denies ethnic cleansing.
– People have been given options, they can leave or stay. During the war of the 1990s, the Azerbaijanis who lived in the region had no choice but to flee, says Şefiyev.
According to Kristiina Silvan, Azerbaijan can be interpreted in many ways as having pressured Armenians to leave Nagorno-Karabakh, but it is difficult to say whether the actions meet the definition of ethnic cleansing.
– The mere departure of people is not a sign of ethnic cleansing, but, for example, preventing return as a result of pressure would be, he says.
Eyewitnesses narratives according to Azerbaijani forces also fired on civilian targets during the September attack.
In addition, videos have appeared on social media that suggest that the departure of people has been accelerated in some places by violence or the threat of violence.
Exhausted and elderly people who left in a hurry without medicine have died on the roadside after being on the road for dozens of hours, says Armenia’s health minister Anahit Avanesyan according to news agency AP.
In Nagorno-Karabakh visited UN team saysthat it has received no reports of violence against civilians since the ceasefire took effect on 20 September.
However, when the UN was able to make a short visit, most of the population had already fled. According to the UN estimate, there are less than 1,000 Armenians left in the region.
Armenians have been arrested and wanted by Azerbaijan
In an interview with , Ferid Şefiyev explains the flight of Armenians with several reasons.
According to Şefiyev, among those fleeing are war criminals who are afraid of being held accountable for their actions. This week, for example, Azerbaijan has arrested a military leader whom it accuses of firing on civilians during the 2020 war.
– Another group of refugees are young people who do not want to live under the flag of Azerbaijan. They got used to living in a separate state, says Şefiyev.
The Armenians of Karabakh have lived like in little Armenia, and Armenia has supported them, describes Kristiina Silvan.
– Life was relatively peaceful until 2020, says Silvan.
According to Ferid Şefiyev, some are leaving because of general uncertainty, influenced by the legacy of the long conflict.
Azerbaijan tightened the blockade before the takeover
The military operation was preceded by the nine-month-long blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The blockade probably sent a message to the civilian population that they are under threat. Azerbaijan closed the only road from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh among others the UN and despite the appeals of other international organizations. There was a serious shortage of food and medicine in the region.
– I understand that people suffered, but we offered Nagorno-Karabakh alternative transport routes through the territories controlled by Azerbaijan. Armenian leaders did not agree to this, says Şefiyev.
Şefiyev also reiterates Azerbaijan’s accusations that the route from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh was used to transport Armenian soldiers and weapons, which had to be addressed.
What will embittered Armenians do next?
Azerbaijan has branded the September military operations as an anti-terrorist operation, says Kristiina Silvan. According to him, this is problematic.
– People are already bitter. The possibility of terrorist attacks or other forms of military resistance cannot be ruled out, says Silvan.
It could also be that a more militaristic wing within Armenia is getting stronger than before, and that the armed forces are gaining more power, which could have wider consequences.
– Until now, however, Armenia has tried to strengthen its partnership with the EU and the West, along with Russia.
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