(Finance) – Fitch Ratings believes that the planned exit from Russia of the European majors of oil and gas or the reduction of operations in the country will have a limited impact on their metrics credit ratings and therefore on their rating. The evaluation follows the announcement of BP And Shell and other companies wanting to partially or completely get out of Russia.
The most significant investment of BP in the country is its participation of the 19.75% in the Russian oil company Rosneftwhich, however, contributed modestly to BP’s cash flow: approximately $ 600 million in dividends, compared to BP’s EBITDA of $ 31 billion in 2021. As a result, BP will not be materially affected by the exit from the Russian market and should be able to maintain its strong corporate profile characterized by some diversification.
The Russian assets of Shell include a share of the 27.5% in the integrated Sakhalin LNG project (a JV with Gazprom) and a holding of 50% in Salym Petroleum Development (a JV with Gazprom Neft), which have little weight compared to Shell’s company profile. Dividends from Russian assets are also estimated to have amounted to approximately $ 700 million in 2021, which is irrelevant to Shell’s operating cash flow of $ 45.1 billion.
TotalEnergies said last week that it will not make new investments in Russia, but it does not plan to withdraw from existing ones, including stakes in Arctic LNG 2 (which will export its first cargo in 2023), Yamal LNG (which is already operational) and a 19.4% stake in Novatek. Dividends are estimated to total $ 0.5 billion, compared to TotalEnergies’ EBITDA of $ 42.3 billion in 2021.
Direct exposure of Eni to Russia it is limited to his own 50% stake in the Blue Stream pipeline to Turkey that the company intends to sell. Fitch believes this will not affect cash flow as the project paid no dividends in 2020-2021. The main operational exposure, on the other hand, is represented by contract with Gazprom for the supply of gas (22.47 billion cubic meters of gas in 2020). In the event of supply interruptions, Eni can increase the production of gas from its holdings in North Africa and West Africa as alternative sources of supply, as well as invoke their contractual safeguards (such as force majeure clauses).
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