The next few weeks will be exciting for Sweden, which is aspiring to join NATO.
The Turkish parliament will return from recess at the beginning of October, and then we will see if Turkey has an absolute president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ready to complete the ratification of NATO membership.
On the eve of the Vilnius Summit organized by NATO in July, the Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg already had time to announce with satisfaction that the Turkish president will take Sweden’s NATO membership to the parliament for approval as quickly as possible. But that didn’t happen.
Fighter trades decisive
What exactly happened to Sweden’s NATO membership?
– President Erdoğan now wants to get a solution for the F-16 fighters that Turkey is looking for, the sale of which is stuck in the US Congress, says a Swedish Turkey expert Paul Levin in a video interview from Stockholm.
Levin heads Stockholm University’s Institute of Turkish Studies. His impression is that an agreement has been reached on fighter jet sales.
On Tuesday, President Erdoğan said that the Turkish parliament will keep its own promises if the US keeps its commitments.
This can be interpreted as Turkey ratifying Sweden’s NATO membership, as long as the United States sells it fighter jets.
In the past, the Turkish president has denied the connection between fighter jet sales and Sweden’s NATO membership.
Erdoğan is also happy to be a senator in the US Congress, a key brakeman for Turkey deals By Bob Menendez of problems. He is in the middle of a corruption investigation and it can also pave the way for gun deals.
But not quite yet.
– The problem is that there is a lack of trust between Turkey and the United States. There has been disagreement about the order in which things are handled. Will Turkey ratify first, or will the US decide on the fighters first, Paul Levin says.
Fighter deals are crucial, but there may still be other bumps in the road.
In Turkey, the parliament obeys – usually
Erdoğan has recently been hiding behind the Turkish parliament in his speeches. The parliament ratified the membership, but there are hardly any examples in Turkey of the parliament not respecting Erdoğan’s will.
– I believe that Erdoğan will get his own party and allies with him if he wants to handle the ratification, says Paul Levin.
According to Levin, the Turkish parliament elected in the spring is in itself the most nationalist and Islamist ever.
It could cause new problems if attention-grabbing Koran burnings or large demonstrations waving flags of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party PKK were seen in Sweden.
Sweden’s most diligent Koran burner, Salwan Momika, has at least temporarily disappeared from the scene. Momika is in the public eye said he was “changing his strategy“.
The message from Turkey is that there are still problems
Although optimism can be heard from Stockholm, the timetable for Sweden’s NATO ratification is still open, says the director of the Turkish Edam think tank You Ülgen. According to him, the F-16 fighter jet sale alone is not enough as a solution for Turkey.
– At the NATO summit in July, it really seemed that there is a consensus on Sweden’s NATO membership. Then it became clear from Erdoğan’s statements that there are still unresolved issues, Ülgen tells by phone.
The interview was conducted before Erdoğan’s latest statement about the F-16 fighters.
Ülgen says that Turkey thinks Sweden still has homework to do in the fight against terrorism. And while protecting the Koran is not a condition for NATO membership, it has become a criterion in President Erdoğan’s speeches.
Among other things, Turkey has demanded an action plan against terrorism from Sweden. In it, Sweden should state what it intends to do to combat terrorism even after membership is realized. Turkey wants to see Sweden’s cards before it ratifies NATO membership.
“We are a bit tired in Sweden”
Paul Levin, says that Sweden and Turkey apparently disagree on whether the anti-terrorism plan must be ready before ratification or not.
– In Sweden, we are a little tired of the one-sidedness of the process. I think if there is progress on fighter jet deals with the US, Turkey can probably wait with this plan.
However, in Sinan Ülgen’s opinion, Sweden cannot get rid of demonstrators who want to display the flags of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK.
– Tolerating demonstrations by PKK supporters in Sweden disturbs Turkey. Turkey’s assumption is still that Sweden will take a tougher line.
Limiting the demonstrations is politically very difficult for the Swedish government, especially if it is seen as a concession to Turkey’s demands.
The Hungarian huffs and puffs, but bends
Then there is Hungary.
The Hungarian leadership is hurt by the democratic criticism directed at itself. in Hungary for example, was recently unearthed A video intended for schools published in Sweden in 2019, which criticizes the development of Hungary.
Watch the video that annoyed Hungary here
Unlike Turkey, Hungary does not seem to have clear demands, but is generally dissatisfied.
The Turkish expert believes that Hungary will hardly pose any major problem as long as Turkey ratifies Sweden’s membership.
– Turkey and Hungary keep in touch and coordinate. If Turkey ratifies, Hungary will do the same. It is not a separate problem in this situation, Sinan Ülgen estimates.
According to ‘s sources, Finland is starting from the fact that Turkey will ratify Sweden’s membership in October. Other NATO countries also constantly remind Turkey. According to Finnish diplomatic and government sources, there is nothing that Sweden can do to promote NATO accession. The solution is up to Turkey alone.
Paul Levin, director of the Institute for Turkish Studies in Stockholm, is cautiously optimistic.
– If I dare to guess, I would say that the ratification will come in October. However, I would not be ready to put my money on the line if I had to bet, says Levin.