The Ukrainian troops have somewhat succeeded in breaking through the Russian defensive fortifications and widening the gap they made towards Verbove and Novoprokopivka.
This has been successful with the help of infantry and artillery, assesses the member of parliament and the former intelligence chief of the General Staff, Major General evp Pekka Toveri.
– After dark, the pioneers clear holes in the minefields, through which the infantry are pushed through supported by artillery. That is, the Russian artillery has been actively attacked with western, longer-range and more accurate cannons.
It is essential that Russian air activity in the area has also been prevented.
However, we cannot speak of a breakthrough.
The comrade says that the breakthrough means that the troops have been able to make an opening in the front several kilometers wide and achieve superiority so that the opponent is no longer able to threaten from the sites. In this case, the route to direct the equipment to the depth of the enemy opens up.
Docent of Military Sciences Ilmari Käihkö is on the same lines as Tover:
– There must be a breakthrough from the enemy’s defense lines. In other words, you can quickly advance without sufficient resistance and conquer areas. This has not been seen before, says Käihkö.
Both experts consider the situation on the south side of Kharkiv a year ago as a point of comparison.
– Then the Ukrainians were able to occupy 12,000 square kilometers in a little over a week, Toveri reminds.
Where is the armored vehicle praised as superior?
From the opening created by artillery and infantry, it has been possible to bring some armored equipment into the area. However, not many western battle tanks have been seen in the footage transmitted from the front.
– Quantitatively, there isn’t much of that equipment after all, Toveri says.
The president of Ukraine said on Monday that the first US Abrams tanks have arrived in the country. There are going to be thirty of them in total.
– Ukraine has probably received 500 tanks from the West. Three hundred of these are used by the brigades that act as the fist of the attack. Half of Western, half of Russian origin, Toveri says.
Surprises in war cannot be ruled out
Even by examining the battle map, the changes in the front line have so far progressed relatively slowly. Can there be any surprises, that suddenly at some point the Russians’ defense collapses?
– Normally, at some point there comes a point where the defender’s forces are so tired and defeated that it just collapses. But on the other hand, Russians are traditionally quite persistent. The capacity to tolerate misery is immense. The commanders threaten and even use violence if necessary, Toveri estimates.
– In war, you can never rule out surprises, but it’s hard to see at the moment that any sudden changes will happen, says Käihkö.
Elsewhere on the front lines, smaller battles are taking place all the time.
– There are constant battles in the lower reaches of the Dnieper. In Adiivka, according to their story, the Ukrainians are trying to prevent the Russians from moving troops to where the gap has now been made, says Toveri.
According to Käihkö, what is telling is that neither side is making much progress at the moment.
– For example, Ukraine’s achievements in Bahmut are quite small, however. Zaporizhia is the critical place. It’s happening on land, at sea and in the air, like for example in Crimea, where Russia suffered a financial loss of billions, says Käihkö, referring to the Ukrainian attack on the Sevastopol base.
“Russia has little offensive ability”
It is worth noting that Russia does not seem to be able to attack, but has to settle for defense.
– The Russians don’t have much offensive capability, most of the troops are on defense missions. This shows the level of morale of the Russian troops. Even Spetsnaz special forces are used for counter-attacks, which is an expensive waste of special men, Toveri estimates.
According to him, there are approximately 400,000–500,000 soldiers on both sides of the fighting. The balance of power seems fairly even, but the attacker’s situation is always more difficult than the defender’s. The attacker should have three to six times the superiority to succeed.
– The forces of Ukraine and Russia seem to be fairly equal in strength. However, Ukraine is progressing, in that sense Ukraine is a bit stronger, Käihkö sees.
– When it comes to personnel, Ukrainians and Russians are equally strong. The Russians may have somewhat more artillery, but Ukraine’s artillery is a little better, which balances the situation, Toveri estimates.
– Both sides have seen signs of a crew shortage. At some point, the Ukrainian volunteers run out, and people have to be caught on the street. As Russia has done. Ukraine’s situation has weakened compared to Russia, Käihkö estimates.
Ukraine has to constantly weigh the use of money, Russia does not
Käihkö reminds that Russia has enough money, while Ukraine has to think differently about its use of money. The sustainability of society burdened by the war, the economy and industrial production must be taken into account.
The Bank of Finland recently repeated the previous one his viewsaccording to which Russia does not have to stop fighting because the money runs out.
– Attacking requires enormous resources. It is not known how long Ukraine can sustain such an attack. That’s why the role of support is absolutely decisive, just for ammunition, says Käihkö.
However, according to both experts, there is still no great concern about the end of aid. Even if there is a change of power in the United States, according to Käihkö, it does not necessarily mean that the possible next president, Donald Trump would automatically stop supporting Ukraine.
– However, he is unpredictable. Europe has already given more support than the US, but Europe should take more responsibility if Ukraine is to win.
Winter is coming, and with the snowstorm, Ukraine’s counterattack will probably falter even more than now. In addition, the problem is that as or if the Ukrainians manage to break through the Russian fortresses, the Russians can build more of them.