(Finance) – In the worst case scenario where the Russia interrupted all gas exports to Europe, the GDP of the euro area would decrease by 2.2 percentage points in 2022 compared to the baseline forecast, with considerable impacts in Germany (-3.4 points) and in Italy (-2.6 points). These the estimates contained in a Goldman Sachs report in which it is underlined how the dependence on Russian gas of Germany (50% of its total imports) and Italy (about 45%) is “considerable”.
Europe – explains the US investment bank – is “heavily” dependent on Russian natural gas, with Moscow accounting for about one third of eurozone imports. Given the high degree of uncertainty, Goldman Sachs fears three scenarios: the first, in which there are no further interruptions in the supply of gas in addition to the reduction in flow since last September; a second, with the shutdown of the gas supply that passes through Ukraine for the whole year; and a third scenario with the complete stop of all Russian imports through gas pipelines to Europe, also for the rest of the year.
For 2022 as a whole, in scenario without further supply interruptionsGoldman Sachs expects the highs gas prices weigh on the euro zone’s GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points he was born in United Kingdom for 0.1 points than the baseline forecast, with a likely greater impact on Germany (-0.9 points).