Later, the Polish government came up with a clarification, it will deliver all the weapons it has already promised to Ukraine. But after that, it’s over. Poland will focus on building up its own military which will be one of the largest and most modern in Europe.
Poland has already largely depleted its military stocks to support Ukraine: hundreds of old Soviet tanks, MIG fighter jets, helicopters, artillery systems, ammunition. Everything has been shipped across the border, often in secret trains and trucks that run shuttles during the night.
Poland has now begun work to replace what it sent to Ukraine with modern, better and deadlier versions: Abrams tanks, HIMARS rocket artillery systems, F35 fighter jets.
But the new weapon systems will of course not be sent to Ukraine.
Grain and summoned ambassadors
Despite that – Poland could have quietly said that it continues to support Ukraine as best it can. Instead, Morawiecki chose to beat the big drum.
The conflict between Poland and Ukraine regarding grain exports is not new. Polish farmers, like farmers in Slovakia and Hungary, feel that cheap grain from Ukraine is driving down prices.
When the EU lifted the import ban on Ukrainian grain, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary imposed their own bans. Ukraine responded by saying that it should take the countries to the World Trade Organization WTO, and Zelenskyy told the entire UN General Assembly that Ukraine’s neighbors are playing “a political theater with grain.”
Poland responded by summoning the Ukrainian ambassador for some harsh words. And then – Morawiecki’s plot about arms deliveries.
Ukraine loser in the Polish election campaign
But as important as grain is the Polish election campaign. According to opinion polls, the ruling Law and Justice Party would not get its own majority if the election were held today. One party that has moved forward is a far-right coalition called Konfederacja, which sometimes (but not always) calls for Poland to stop supporting Ukraine.
Poland has also been rocked for several weeks by a scandal that involves hundreds of thousands of people from Asia and Africa having been able to buy Polish work visas. This has meant that the opposition has been able to say that Law and Justice allows illegal immigration. A political weapon that hits hard in Poland.
In such a situation, perhaps a small conflict with Ukraine is not so bad, one can imagine that Morawiecki calculated. Take the initiative and focus the country’s voters on a conflict that he can manage better.
The question now is what happens after the election? Will the country be able to return to being Ukraine’s best friend, or will the anti-Ukrainian slogans get stuck in the corridors of power.