Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki dropped a surprise statement on Wednesday: Poland plans to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. The reason, Morawiecki said, is that the country needs to focus on its own armed forces and modernizing its arsenal.
Researcher specializing in Polish history Jussi Jalonen however, believes that this is not the whole truth.
– Poland’s internal politics affects the matter. Elections are coming up in the country, and the farmers’ protest against the transit of Ukrainian grain has become a significant factor, says Jalonen.
When it has not been possible to transport Ukrainian grain to the market via the Black Sea, it has been exported by land via, for example, Poland.
– The reason behind the farmers’ protest is the fear that the transit of agricultural products from Ukraine will depress domestic prices and make the position of Polish agricultural producers more difficult, says Jalonen.
Poland’s ruling party Law and Justice (PiS) has traditionally also relied on the votes of the rural population. According to Jalonen, this is why Law and Justice does not want Ukrainian grain to enter the Polish market freely, and is now clearly trying to improve its shares by taking a hard line.
In addition to the voters, actions are also used to possibly influence EU decision-making.
– Law and Justice will probably require EU support measures in exchange for allowing the export corridor, and we are ready to pursue this issue by, for example, tightening arms aid, says Jalonen.
Poland gave help in different ways
Poland’s importance in military assistance to Ukraine arises from more than the weapons and ammunition it donates. Poland has created pressure on others to give Ukraine the weapons it wants.
For example, the United States and Germany decided to give tanks only after Poland had decided on the matter, he writes Atlantic Council. Poland handed over old Russian tanks to Ukraine and demanded that Europe hand over modern Leopard tanks.
Poland was also the first to surrender fighter jets for Ukraine.
Poland’s old Mig-29 fighters are already flying in Ukraine, as are Slovak fighters.
Other countries have only in the last few weeks been able to make decisions that they will hand over F-16 fighters. Sweden is considering handing over the Gripens.
“Ukraine is now facing something new”
Researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Charly Salonius-Pasternak agrees that the grain issue is likely behind the end of arms aid. Poland is now playing a dangerous game for Ukraine.
– Almost every western country has parties that do not want to support Ukraine in the current model. This gives additional oxygen to these flames, Salonius-Pasternak estimates.
As such, it can only be a “warning shot” from Poland. According to Salonius-Pasternak, Poland can reverse its arms aid decision at any time.
Ukraine is now faced with a tough choice. Grain export is a vital source of income for Ukraine, and Russia has made it difficult. However, Poland is an important ally that has supported the country with weapons and accommodated one million Ukrainian refugees.
– The strategic risk for Ukraine is big. Until now, the country has received almost free support from Western countries. Now there is a risk that this will change, says Salonius-Pasternak.
Ukraine must think about how to please supporters in the future.
On the other hand, it’s about Poland, a conflict between the Western allies that has caused discord before. The country is pulling the trigger in the EU in many areas, from the rule of law to immigration issues.
Could the Western allies, for example, led by Germany and the United States, pressure Poland to back down and supply weapons?
– Poland still has many screws to tighten. A significant part of Ukraine’s arms aid passes through Poland. For now, this will continue as before, but the situation may change.
Salonius-Pasternak estimates that if someone wants to put pressure on Poland, it is best to do it behind closed doors.
Above all, Russia, which is watching the twisting of its Western allies with satisfaction, will benefit from the ongoing war.
– And I am convinced that Russia is not just watching from the sidelines, but also wants to accelerate and escalate the conflict, Salonius-Pasternak says.