NUCLEAR WAR. Ever more offensive, Russia does not hesitate to wield nuclear weapons. The latest attack, that of the Kharkiv research center on March 6, reinforces the fear of a generalized conflict. Is the risk of a third world war serious?
[Mis à jour le 8 mars à 14H42] On March 6, the Russian army again attacked a Ukrainian nuclear site. After firing a missile at the administrative part of the Zaporizhia power plant two days earlier, Russian forces fired artillery shells at a nuclear research center on the outskirts of Kharkiv, as reported by the International atomic energy on March 7. If, as the agency specifies, the site is lightly loaded with radioactive material, which means that this attack should have “no radiological consequences”, it is part of the Kremlin’s nuclear threat deterrence strategy. In addition, the Russian army is under orders to target civilian and peaceful targets, and it also uses unguided aerial bombs to attack Ukraine, according to revelations of a captured Russian pilot to the intelligence services of the Russian Federation. Ukrainian state. These offensives reinforce the fear of an intensification of the conflict.
While the provisional balance sheet of the ONU reports on March 8 that more than 2 million people have fled Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the French presidency renews its aspiration to stay out of the conflict. Emmanuel Macron thus affirmed: “We want this war to stop, we want to put enough pressure on the Russian president […] but without entering into the conflict and waging war with Russia, because it would then be a world war”, during his campaign trip to Poissy, on the evening of March 7. If it is Vladimir Poutine who , alone, “chose war”, as Emmanuel Macron declared on March 2, it is of course over Europe that the war risks spreading. Ukraine and Russia remain the only belligerents in this conflict and neither the European Union nor the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) intend to intervene militarily, at least directly. Everything will therefore depend on the decisions of the master of the Kremlin. However, in Moscow, the head of Russian diplomacy, Sergey Lavrov, affirmed in a press conference on Thursday March 3: “A third world war can only be nuclear, but I draw your attention to the fact that it is on the minds of Western politicians, not on the Russians’. Doubt therefore hangs over the level of dangerousness of Vladimir Putin, whose arsenal is nevertheless powerful, and ready for use.
Nuclear attack in Europe, real risk or deterrence?
The nuclear threat went up a notch on Sunday February 27 with the announcement by the master of the Kremlin that the “deterrent forces” had been put on alert. This panel of military measures, however, includes other levers than a nuclear attack and since Vladimir Putin’s speech the United States has ensured that it has not detected any suspicious or “concrete” movement for the preparation of such an offensive. Physically, Russia is capable of arming nuclear missiles with more than 6,000 warheads at its disposal and a substantial arsenal of bombers, submarines and surface ships but, again, satellite images show no movement strategic. The war in Ukraine concentrates the bulk of Russian military operations, but Moscow has already sent several airstrikes on the Eastern European country and the Kremlin has missiles that can be loaded by nuclear warheads, so the risk is still present. .
Russia’s ability to launch a nuclear offensive does not mean that it intends to cross the red line. Specialists believe that the threat serves rather as an argument to establish political blackmail, to impose itself in a dominant position in the conflict against Ukraine, especially before the opening of the talks organized on Monday February 28, and to dissuade the West to interfere in Russian-Ukrainian relations. Vladimir Putin would therefore have indirectly addressed Europe and the United States to warn them “that in the event of military interference in the conflict with Ukraine, he reserved the option of using nuclear weapons” , according to Rafael Loss, a specialist in nuclear doctrine issues at the European Council on International Relations interviewed by France 24.
Does Russia have an interest in launching a nuclear attack?
If the material threat is real, from a strategic point of view a nuclear offensive would do Russia a disservice in several respects. The massive military operation and the encirclement of Kiev reflect the Kremlin’s objective of taking power from the Ukrainian capital to place the country under its fold, the Russian government having hammered home its desire to “maintain peace” and “liberate “the Ukrainians of the “Nazis in power”. Conducting a nuclear offensive on Ukraine would amount to annihilating the country and would be an action contradictory to Putin’s project, especially since the Russian leader is not held in high esteem in the opinion of the Ukrainian people. It should also be noted that using nuclear force on a country devoid of this strike force is not allowed by the document, signed by the Kremlin in October 2020, which limits Moscow’s nuclear power to four cases requiring a threat effective nuclear weapons against Russia. Such an affront was not addressed to the Kremlin by Ukraine, which is not part of the club of nuclear powers, nor by Europe or the United States, which claim not to want to go to war with Vladimir Putin. Moscow is therefore trying by different means to find any nuclear threat among its adversaries, even if it means using propaganda like this Sunday, March 6, 2022 when a senior Kremlin official quoted in the Russian media accused Ukraine of making a “dirty bomb” from the remains of radioactive plutonium from Chernobyl. The accusation relayed by the Parisian is not the first of its kind, but the West does not give it credit, especially since Ukraine has repeatedly repeated that it does not intend to become the tenth nuclear country.
Beyond its military interests in Kiev, Moscow must also deal despite itself with the other nuclear powers which, if they remain in the background on the front, have taken a position in favor of Ukraine and provide it with financial and material support. If Vladimir Putin chooses to launch a nuclear offensive, he poses as an aggressor and exposes himself to an economic, military response from the West, even nuclear if his attack is on Europe, and forces Russia to be isolated on an international scale.
A war between Russia and Europe?
“We are not at war with Russia,” declared Emmanuel Macron in his speech on March 2, 2022 on behalf of France and more generally of Europe. No Western power plans to take a direct part in the conflict in Ukraine, yet all have taken a position in favor of Kiev and are organizing to provide financial aid to the country as well as logistical and military support. The European Union has thus released 1.2 billion euros to support the Ukrainian economy but also intends, and this is a historic decision, to finance the delivery of military artillery, including lethal weapons, to Ukraine. up to 450 million euros. These announcements dated February 28 prove that the EU is not neutral and plays an even indirect role in this war. France, for its part, has sent military troops to NATO bases neighboring Ukraine, such as in Romania.
Europe justifies this aid by the necessary support to be given to Ukraine, injured in the face of the armada of Russia, and insists that these actions are not carried out against the Kremlin. Otherwise, Moscow, accustomed since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine to rewrite history to its advantage, could use this argument to launch offensives on Europe.
Could an attack on a nuclear power plant signal the start of a nuclear war?
The hypothesis of a nuclear war was until now envisaged only by an attack with a nuclear bomb. But the Russian offensive launched on Ukraine’s Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, on Friday March 4, 2022 puts the possibilities into perspective. If the nuclear complex were to be hit and explode it would be “ten times worse than Chernobyl” according to statements by the head of Ukrainian diplomacy, Dmytro Kuleba, on Twitter. The consequences of a nuclear power plant explosion could extend well beyond Ukraine’s borders and lead to international sanctions against Russia, or the country responsible for the attack. However, is it really possible for Vladimir Putin to take the risk of exposing his own country, a neighbor of Ukraine, to radioactive risks? The strike on Zaporizhya can, like Moscow’s verbal threats, serve a deterrent purpose. The International Atomic Energy Alliance (IAEA) spoke out quickly after the destruction of part of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant and called “to cease the use of force and warns of a grave danger if the reactors are affected”.
A possible Third World War?
Since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russia and Ukraine have been the only belligerents to take part in the fight. The United States and Europe have repeated several times that they do not want to participate in the military escalation and do not want to go to war against the Kremlin. However, the origin of the conflict is none other than the desire of Ukraine, a former country of the Soviet Union, to get closer to NATO and the European Union, two organizations representing the western bloc . The war in Ukraine crystallizes the rivalries of the cold war which return to the front of the stage. Vladimir Putin considered that the rapprochement of NATO and the EU in Ukraine was an aggression and a threat against Russia, a speech which confirms the return of this West / East confrontation.
However, NATO and the EU have never shown any desire to accede to Ukraine’s demands and to integrate the country into their members. Kiev defends this idea alone and takes advantage of the Russian attack against it to call on Europe to reconsider its judgment. Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine signed Ukraine’s application for integration into the EU on Monday February 28, 2022 and delivered a poignant speech to the European Parliament the following day: “Europe will be much stronger with Ukraine within it (…) Without you, Ukraine will be alone. We have proven our strength, we have shown that we are your equals (…) So, prove that you are with us and that you will not not let us down”. Although the EU regularly renews its support for Ukraine, it still does not grant its request. The 27 know that accepting the integration of Ukraine would give Vladimir Putin the opportunity to launch an offensive on Europe and perhaps trigger a world-wide war.