In 2021, RTE published its six energy scenarios for France by 2050. The result of two years of work, this document aimed to enlighten the country on the possible choices and, above all, to dispassionate the debate in an area shaped by the opposition deep between pro-nuclear and supporters of renewable energies. Two years later, the manager of the French electricity network, born in 2005 following the end of EDF’s monopoly on this activity, is putting the work back into action and updating its predictions for the period 2023-2035. The opportunity for L’Express to question its president, Xavier Piechaczyk, on France’s chances of succeeding in its energy transition. An unfiltered interview, as appreciated by this bridge and road engineer, passionate about art and infrastructure.
“It’s the story of the great shift”
As a preamble, Xavier Piechaczyk would like to tell us about the “great switch“. Because this shift, on which several dozen engineers at RTE are working, perfectly sums up the issues of the moment. How do we move from a world of fossil fuels to a highly electrified world? “France still consumes 63 % fossil fuels and only 25% electricity. She is not the worst student from a European point of view. But if our country wants to meet its ambitions in terms of climate and reindustrialization, electricity consumption will have to rise sharply,” warns the CEO. In its reference scenario, RTE therefore expects national consumption of between 580 and 640 terawatt hours in 2035 , compared to the current 460. “Succeeding in this increase in power – of the order of 30% – is possible provided that four levers are used: energy efficiency, sobriety, the availability of the nuclear fleet and the development of renewable energies. Of course, political power retains some room for maneuver. He can decide to activate more or less one of these levers, but our study is clear: we cannot neglect any of them.” In other words, there is no question of focusing solely on nuclear or renewable energy. Either But we will have to find the right balance between the two. Another thorny question.
“We have never hidden the difficulties linked to the transition”
“We are not naive. We can clearly see that our climate commitments are accelerating. By 2030, we must reduce our CO2 emissions by 55% compared to 1990. This is extremely ambitious, since we do not “We have only covered half of the way between 1990 and 2022. So we only have seven years left to do the other half,” recognizes Xavier Piechaczyk. Alongside its main scenario, RTE therefore worked on new hypotheses taking into account France’s delay in both the electrification of uses and the construction of a new electricity production system. The network manager even details a scenario entitled “thwarted globalization”. This corresponds to a world in which difficult macroeconomic conditions persist: difficulty in supplying fossil fuels, rising prices of raw materials, high inflation and interest rates, low growth… Obviously, making the transition successful in such a context would be much more difficult.
So, we wonder: isn’t the presence of this scenario a way to start preparing ourselves for future disappointments? Scathing response from the boss of RTE: “I reject the fact that we are preparing the ground for us not to succeed. The transition is manageable. It is not punitive either, since the efforts we make We anticipate in terms of sobriety are in line with what households did during last winter. The most important thing is to move forward fully on the four levers and to obtain the support of households and businesses.” Message received. We think of Adapt or Die, a remix album ofEverything but the Girlone of his favorite groups.
“Let’s look at our last fifteen assessments. I would like someone to explain to me where we went wrong”
What if France had largely underestimated the shock of future electrification to the point of leading the country into a wall? Criticism resurfaces regularly in the media. We launch Xavier Piechaczyk on the subject. His face hardened. Some “so-called experts” have obviously not worked hard enough. And the manager recalls: “Any projection of energy consumption made at a given moment reflects the public policies of the time. Let’s go into detail: were we promised carbon neutrality in 2050 in the 2010s? No. In France, at the same time, the heating standards for new buildings gave a very large place to gas, to the detriment of electricity, precisely because we were not yet in the world of COP 21. And those – including RTE – who claimed at the time that consumption was going to stagnate were not wrong. Dear sir, France actually consumes less electricity now than ten years ago.” QED.
“France spends its time debating the conditions of electricity production. This is not the major subject”
Continuing his momentum, the person responsible for our 105,000 kilometers of power lines takes the opportunity to give a rant to those who enjoy directing the debates on false problems. “Wondering what consumption projections were fifteen years ago is really not a priority. Today, our concern is our dependence on oil and gas. For France, the bill has reached 120 billion euros last year. And over the last ten years it represents 50 billion per year. The countries which receive this money are not systematically geopolitical allies. Far from it. So, the real question is how to part with these 120 billion euros. It’s about our sovereignty.”
All the more reason, therefore, to accelerate the energy transition. The president of RTE gives us some figures on the necessary deployments: by 2035, the annual production of renewable energy would need to increase from 120 terawatt hours per year to a level between 270 and 320 terawatt hours. On offshore wind, the government plans to have 18 gigawatts of installed power in 2035. We start from 1 gigawatt. On photovoltaics, we are aiming for 65 gigawatts by 2035. We are starting from 15 or 16.” Ambitious or unrealistic? Should we take inspiration from the Germans to deploy renewables more quickly? “Certainly, they have made questionable choices in linking to Russian gas and prematurely closing their still functioning nuclear power plants. But it must be recognized, their support for renewable energies is much stronger,” confides Xavier Piechaczyk.
“We must reform the European electricity market to benefit from more attractive prices”
It is a fear common to all governments: seeing electricity prices spiral out of control. “Last winter, we witnessed the emergence of a crazy price bubble, recognizes Xavier Piechaczyk. Economic players largely overestimated the risk of power cuts in Europe, and in France in particular, which caused raise risk premiums and prices. Today, the bubble is only half deflated. To put an end to this anomaly, it is absolutely necessary to reform the European electricity market. This would make it possible to disconnect the bills of consumers of gas prices and international geopolitical tensions. This is all the more important for France as we are fortunate to have a good quality nuclear production device. At present, we cannot pass on the end consumer the fact that our costs remain low. The discussions held at European level on this subject must therefore be successful. Our national competitiveness is at stake.”
Another important European subject for the boss of RTE, the direction of the investments that we are going to make to develop the networks. “They must absolutely benefit companies in the Old Continent. We will need underground or submarine cables, direct current converter stations, circuit breakers… These orders should not only translate into growth outside of Europe. The Commission is aware of this. Proof that we can also talk about Europe in a positive way.”