“There is something rotten in the Kingdom of Denmark,” quipped the American ambassador to Japan, in a direct allusion to China after the “disappearance” of its Defense Minister, Li Shangfu. In addition to a Shakespearean drama, this new adventure could fuel an Agatha Christie detective novel, as the recent dismissals at the top of the Chinese state are shrouded in mystery.
Appointed at the beginning of the year, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Qing Gang, former ambassador to Washington, has not been seen in public since June – he was replaced by his predecessor, Wang Yi. As for Li Shangfu, who, like Qing, was one of the five state councilors, he would be the subject of an investigation, according to the Financial Times. If confirmed, this purge at Defense would be in addition to that of two generals who commanded the Missile Force.
In the absence of an explanation, rumors swell: corruption, betrayal, criticism of the political line, rival factions, matters of morals… And a question grows: how did Xi Jinping, who himself had selected these officials, could he have made such a mistake in casting, in a country so closely monitored? These eliminations could be a symptom of the ultra-personalization of power, after more than ten years of inflexible reign. “Problems already existed before their appointment, but who would dare suggest to Xi not to choose his protégés? says Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London. The leader no longer benefits from collective wisdom when he makes decisions and sometimes he has to correct things.” Even if it means undermining his credibility and that of the regime.
A cocktail of lack of transparency and unpredictability
The operation of the CCP is more opaque than ever. Beijing therefore did not see fit to justify the absence of Xi Jinping at the last G20 summit. This cocktail of lack of transparency and unpredictability gives the impression of a country obsessed with its internal difficulties, and less and less concerned about the image given to the rest of the world.
Enough to arouse distrust and concern internationally, while the Sino-American dialogue has been complicated for months, the crisis of the Chinese balloon described as “spy” by Washington having aggravated tensions. After an exchange between Wang Li and American security adviser Jake Sullivan, a Xi Jinping – Joe Biden meeting is in theory possible at the Apec summit in San Francisco in November. A Chinese refusal would send a worrying signal to the West. But even if the “red emperor” moves, the enigma of the disappearances will remain unsolved.