The Kremlin is nervous now, believes a Russian researcher who visited Finland Ekaterina Schulmann.
President Vladimir Putin wants to secure its dominant position and avoid an uprising like the one in Belarus in 2020.
met the political researcher who gained a cult reputation in Helsinki and listed the most interesting perspectives on the state of the Russian administration.
Last weekend’s show elections at the local level in Russia are considered a dress rehearsal for next March’s election drama, which will seal Putin’s continued presidency.
According to Schulmann, the administration should organize the elections so that no one can become a candidate whom the people could see as a real alternative to Putin. That’s why only old, pathetic and ridiculous characters are chosen as counter-candidates.
– The formula goes by the name of Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, which the Kremlin can still survive, says Schulmann.
Russia’s war of aggression has further tightened the country’s autocratic system, but public opinion still matters.
Political researcher Ekaterina Schulmann is one of Russia’s brightest social commentators. He likes popular YouTube channel and gives interviews to international quality media.
After the start of the war of aggression, Schulmann, who was declared a “foreign agent”, moved to Berlin because he was no longer able to continue public work in his home country. He says that he is also on guard outside Russia’s borders.
Recently, there was news about the suspected poisoning of three journalists or activists critical of the Russian regime in Europe.
– Risks are part of my job. The safety practices learned in Russia cannot be abandoned after leaving the country, says Schulmann.
Schulmann went to Finland to give a public lecture and at the same time visited the parliament.
Operation: Ensuring Putin’s Continuation
Before the presidential election drama, the Kremlin tries to keep the people happy by handing out money and muting bad news from the front.
According to Schulmann, the period before the elections is always risky for the Russian administration. Now, however, the pressure before the show elections in March is greater than before: A war of aggression fuels dissatisfaction and general apathy among Russians.
The Kremlin is doing everything it can to prevent a protest movement similar to the popular uprising in Belarus three years ago from happening again in Russia. In 2020, Belarusians rose up to protest in an unprecedented way Alexander Lukashenko administration because of dishonest elections.
According to Schulmann, the autocratic system of Belarus has only survived due to Russia’s military, economic and communication support.
– There is no other Russia in Russia that would rush to help. There is no need to wait for Chinese support. Contrary to the illusions of many, the current Russian administration is not that useful for China, says Schulmann.
The Russian administration is trying to keep the citizens happy for the next few months by handing out money and focusing attention on initiatives that support social and economic well-being from the military operations in Ukraine.
When Putin’s continuation is confirmed, the administration’s hands are no longer tied.
– Then the borders can be closed and a general motion can be announced, says Schulmann.
Prigozhin’s death is a sign for the inner circle
The plane crash of Wagner leader Prigozhin shows how the Putin regime defends its own.
Russian authorities have not given an official explanation as to who led the private army Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin from the plane accident that happened at the end of August.
According to The New York Times President Putin would have personally given the order to destroy the plane carrying Prigozhin.
Schulmann does not see Prigozhin’s death as the starting point for purges in the elite close to Putin. Instead, it’s more about getting rid of a pyrkyr who thought too much of himself. The researcher therefore sees that Prigožin’s death was not meant to scare the elite, but on the contrary to show that the administration protects its own.
– This man spoke badly about you and dared to rebel, so look how we defend you, says Schulmann.
The people’s support for the war wavered
The majority of Russians do not have a strict stance on military actions, but it varies depending on the success of the war.
Ekaterina Schulmann calls for a critical attitude to surveys measuring support for the war. For example, independent research institute Levadan according to a survey published last week, 70 percent of Russians support their country’s military actions in Ukraine.
– In the presence of military censorship and political repression and, above all, in the absence of free political discussion, we are unable to map public opinion with a single metric, Schulmann points out.
That’s why he combines data from a large number of different variables and uses, for example, metrics that determine consumer behavior when evaluating the Russians’ attitude to the war.
According to Schulmann, roughly 20 percent of Russians oppose and a slightly smaller number support their country’s military actions in Ukraine. The majority of the people, on the other hand, empathize with the war. War success brings support for an offensive war, while defeats undermine it.
Russia’s symptomatic society
The state of Russian society is sick, which can be seen in fleeing the country and drunkenness.
Russian society is in an alarmingly miserable state, as the war of aggression against Ukraine has lasted for more than a year and a half. This is shown by the mass flight of Russians from the country and the increase in drunkenness, which Schulmann sees as means of passively resisting the war.
Especially young men who try to avoid being on the front have fled from Russia. The exact number is not known, but Schulmann roughly estimates that for every Russian enlisted in the war, three others have left the country.
According to Schulmann, disempowered war opponents can also be driven to harm their health by, for example, purposeful drunkenness.
– If you lie at home drunk, you’re no longer good for anything. This is also a way to avoid invitations, says Schulmann.
This has been reported in Russia drinking vodka than sales of antidepressants of growth since the start of the war of aggression.
What thoughts does the story evoke? You can discuss the topic on 15.9. until 11 p.m.