If they want to save their economy, the Germans know that they can no longer do without massive immigration. Even the millions of refugees arriving in recent years will not be enough to compensate for the low birth rate and retirements of the “baby boomer” generation. Germany is facing a labor shortage so serious that it is putting questioning its pay-as-you-go social system. According to the Federal Employment Agency, 400,000 more foreigners are needed each year to stabilize the level of the job market.
A hole of 7 million people in 2035
For businesses, staff shortages are an existential issue. This is the No. 1 problem for SMEs in the “Mittelstand”, the backbone of “made in Germany”, which deplores nearly 2 million vacant positions. “At the current rate, there will be a shortage of 7 million people on the labor market in 2035,” warns Enzo Weber of the Institute for Labor Market Research (IAB).
Without qualified workers, the government will be unable to complete its building renovation program to meet its commitments to reduce CO2 emissions. In the key sanitary sector alone, 60,000 installers are lacking to install the millions of heat pumps that the government subsidizes with billions of euros. “The energy transition creates jobs. But there is a shortage of 400,000 people in the energy and construction sectors,” notes Enzo Weber.
Immigration law eased
“Among all the levers used by the government, it is the recruitment of immigrants which will be the most important,” he continues. To this end, Chancellor Olaf Scholz once again reformed the immigration law this year by relaxing the entry criteria. No more “national preference” when hiring or residence permit with an employment contract, no more need to speak the language or present an employment contract before settling in Germany… A points system, based on the model Canadian, even makes it possible to speed up procedures.
According to the Social Democratic Minister of Labor, Hubertus Heil, Germany has adopted “the most modern immigration policy in Europe”. “But efforts will have to be focused on integration. Many qualified immigrants leave after a few years due to lack of professional prospects and administrative issues,” comments Enzo Weber. Germany’s bureaucracy is seen as one of the main obstacles for candidates. “We have 30 different residence permits!” notes the IAB expert.
Recruitment tour in Brazil
Germany is not the only one in Europe facing a labor shortage. A race against time has begun in “third countries” (non-EU) with its British and French neighbors to recruit the “best brains” on the planet. Hubertus Heil and the head of German diplomacy, the ecologist Annalena Baerbock, traveled together to Brazil before the summer to launch a high-profile campaign to recruit nursing assistants for German hospitals.
“It’s an illusion to think that everyone wants to come to Germany,” conceded Hubertus Heil. “Our jungle of regulations is rather dissuasive. Why should a Brazilian caregiver have to wait for a response from the German authorities when the procedures are simpler in Portugal or the United States?” he added.
This need for massive immigration, even if it is accepted by a large part of the population, nevertheless comes up against the populist arguments of the far right. The AfD (Alternative für Deutschland), a party favorable to “Dexit”, is disrupting the recruitment of companies in India, Mexico and Africa. In Saxony, nicknamed “Silicon Saxony” for its high-tech factories, 1 in 3 workers will retire in the next seven years. The AfD reached 35% of voting intentions one year before the regional elections. “The last thing we need is xenophobia,” worried Siegfried Russwurm, president of the Federation of German Industrialists, at a forum devoted to investments in eastern Germany, in the former GDR. Olaf Scholz shared his concerns: “Foreign workers must be welcomed in Germany.”