Facts: Ukraine
Ukraine became independent from the Soviet Union in 1991. Since then, the country has been characterized by authoritarian and corrupt governments at times.
A revolution in 2014 brought the contradictions with Russia to a head. The big neighbor started a war which, among other things, meant that the peninsula of Crimea was taken. In 2022, Russia greatly expanded the war, with attempts to conquer all of Ukraine. During this ongoing major war, Ukraine has received strong support from the EU and the US.
Since 2019, Ukraine has been led by President Volodymyr Zelensky. The country has 38 million inhabitants and the capital is called Kiev.
Source: UI/Landguiden
The main line of defense that Ukraine has now broken through in Zaporizhzhya County is the line of defense that Russia has prioritized.
“Subsequent lines of defense are not as well developed and not as well manned, so what you can hope for is that the plug has come out a little bit,” says Johan Huovinen, military strategist at the University of Defense in Stockholm.
He adds:
— But a lot of work still remains and it is not certain that the Ukrainian side will reach where they had wanted, that is to stand with their boots on the northern shore of Lake Azov.
The next step for the Ukrainian forces is now to reach the heavily fortified Tokmak railway junction a few miles south of Robotyne. A few more miles in the same direction is the larger town of Melitopol near Lake Azov.
Important railway track
At Tokmak, Ukraine wants to cut off the rail link, which would greatly impact the capabilities of Russian forces. The railway track is used for Russian transport and stretches from the Mariupol area up towards Tokmak and down towards Crimea. If Ukraine can access the railway, it can affect Russian military maintenance in the long term. Ammunition transport in particular is preferably done by rail.
“If you can affect the railway network, you make it difficult for Russia to logistically maintain its military units in this area,” says Johan Huovinen.
Lieutenant Colonel Johan Huovinen, teacher of military strategy at the Department of War Science and Military History at the Norwegian Defense Academy. Stock photography. Cut off country corridor
But it is not only the railway tracks at Tokmak that Ukraine wants. By getting down to Melitopol, they hope in a later step to also be able to cut off the land corridor that stretches from Mariupol to Crimea.
Then it is possible to create a feeling that Crimea is isolated, says Johan Huovinen.
— If you also succeed in knocking off the bridge to Crimea – which you can do if you were to get down to the northern shore of Lake Azov – you can reach the bridge from there with, for example, Himars robots and shoot it completely. Then you could really succeed in isolating Crimea and then perhaps reach such a situation that you can get the Russian side to the negotiating table.
Winter offensive
In the outside world and in Ukraine, opinions are aired that the planned spring offensive, which turned into a summer offensive and which has now been going on for three months, is going far too slowly.
— Initially, it had been hoped that it might go faster. We have since understood that the amount of expanded Russian defense combined with tank mines has meant that they have not been able to arrive as quickly as they would have liked. But what we have seen on the Ukrainian side is that they have made it through, and so far with quite a few losses when you look at the material side, says Johan Huovinen.
At the moment there is a month or maybe a month and a half to continue the offensive as it looks today. Then comes autumn, when the road conditions make it difficult to continue forward in the same way and the offensive is forced to slow down
“Then the Ukrainian side will have to go into defense for a couple of months, and then when it gets frosty on the slopes, switch to some type of winter offensive in January,” says Johan Huovinen.