Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine brought Wagner into the spotlight just over a year ago. A shadowy group of mercenaries turned overnight into a feared private army.
Yevgeny Prigozhin The Wagner mercenary company became known as an effective and brutal fighting force.
Now that the chief Prigozhin and the second man Dimitri Utkin are out of the game, Wagner’s future is a big question mark. What happens to mercenary heavy weapons and operations in different countries?
The first option has already been hinted at for the Wagner fighters, says a researcher at the University of Tampere Mikko Räkköläinen, who is familiar with Wagner. The name of the alternative is Redut.
– They have been urged to join the Redut private army. It is an independent organization, but works directly under the Russian Defense Administration.
Redut has been working behind the scenes for some time. However, it will not be like Wagner, who acted completely independently based on Prigozhin’s character and relationships. According to Räkköläinen, Redut is not nearly as wide, flexible and fast as Wagner.
So are we running down the Wagner group?
– The Wagner organization will dissolve at the latest when the money taps run dry, because the troops received their salaries through Prigožin, Räkköläinen states.
According to Räkköläinen, a large number of Wagner fighters are professional soldiers who don’t care who signs the pay slip. However, some of them may be very loyal to Prigozin and believe that the Russian leadership is not capable of leading a war, Räikköläinen says.
– This can cause problems in the transfer of soldiers under the Russian defense administration, Räkköläinen states.
Wagner was also known by the nickname “Putin’s private army”. Putin used it to increase Russia’s influence, especially in Africa and the Middle East.
of The New York Times according to the interviewed expert, Putin hardly wants to give up his previous trust.
– The Wagner group is Putin’s toolkit. He doesn’t want to give it up just because Prigozh and the rest of the group’s leadership are gone, Cameron Hudson, an Africa expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, told the newspaper.
Will there be another Prigozhin?
According to Räkköläinen, Wagner was efficiently organized, and Prigozhin led it in a modern way.
– At Wagner, performance earned promotions. Commanders at lower levels were given responsibility, and Prigozhin was able to guarantee the independence of the mercenary army, Räkköläinen describes.
However, Räkköläinen does not believe that there will be a continuation of the activity within Wagner.
And the Kremlin would not agree to this, unless it is a person loyal to the Russian military leadership.
– Everything was based on Prigozhin’s relationships. Military operations, business and logistics operations. Freedom was guaranteed by good relations with Putin. There is no other person who has the same power and freedom to act.
This freedom eventually became Prigozhin’s fate. According to Räkköläinen, he became too powerful and influential.
Wagner’s almost mythical power in Africa
The consequences of Prigozhin’s death are felt especially in African countries, where Wagner has supported the leaders of the states and suppressed rebellions with great force.
In the Central African Republic and Mali, Wagner secured autocratic leaders and helped the countries’ armies fight insurgents and extremist groups. In Mali The UN blames Wagner for carrying out atrocities alongside the Malian army. In Sudan, on the other hand, a private army supplied weapons and trained the country’s army.
In return, Prigožin’s organization received money and mining licenses for gold and diamonds. In addition, Prigozin had a network of hundreds of companies in Africa.
According to Räkköläinen, Prigozhin had extended his power to every field. In addition to military operations, Wagner had radio stations and logistics companies. The company produced propaganda, did business and manipulated elections.
– It was a shady network that ran this activity, and everything was in Prigožin’s hands. Transferring the whole pattern to another person is hardly possible, says Räkköläinen.
Russia finances war with African gold mines
The Russian leadership has already tried to patch up the gap and uncertainty in Africa caused by the death of the Wagner boss.
Even after the June uprising, representatives of the Russian leadership was said to have visited for assurance different countries from Russia’s military support, regardless of Prigozhin’s fate.
According to Räkköläinen, in any case, some kind of slump will come when the new organization starts running military activities.
However, Russia wants to keep Africa firmly in its hands. Particularly important for it is the mining operation in Wagner’s hands. According to Räikköläinen, Russia is using it to finance its war of aggression in Ukraine.
However, milking money from Africa will not be easy in the future.
– It will be difficult. Cooperation in countries going through civil wars is based on trust and personal relationships, says Räkköläinen.
Yevgeny Prigozhin had visited in Africa just a few days before his plane went down. The last video he appeared on appears to be from Africa.
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