(Finance) – In the base scenario of Intesa Sanpaolothe net issues of Italian government bonds should be close to zero in the period September-December 2023 (approximately 2 billion euro), after net issues of 98 billion euro in the January-August period. This would be the result of gross issues of approximately 144 billion euro and redemptions of 143 billion euro. This can be read in a research signed by Chiara Manenti, Fixed Income Strategist of the Italian bank.
The forecast assumes: new 7- and 10-year BTPs already announced in the 3Q23 schedule; new 5-year BTP in October; a new 15-year BTP from large syndicates (8 billion); a new benchmark BTPei; a global bonds in USD medium-sized (3.5 billion); an issue aimed at retail investorsBTP Italia or large value BTP (8 billion).
In the worst case scenario, the Treasury could: increase the supply of short-term BOTs and BTPs, both negative in the most favorable case; offer two new bonds for retail investors; push for the fourth tranche of EU funds; use the auction reserved for Specialists.