Russian tanks enter Estonia, Madagascar retakes the Scattered Islands from France, Erdogan’s Turkey attacks the Imia Islands, the Charles de Gaulle sunk by China, Mali falls into the hands of the jihadists… With the help of a Forty researchers, diplomats, generals and former members of the intelligence services, the Express has developed five credible hypotheses leading to a French military response: dark scenarios that overlap with those on which the French army is already working and on which it is preparing. Check out our long format video on our YouTube channel.
EPISODE 1/5 – March 2026: Putin launches special operation in Estonia
EPISODE 2/5 – August 2028: France loses the Scattered Islands off Madagascar
EPISODE 3/5 – February 2027: Erdogan attacks two Greek islands, France intervenes.
This fourth black scenario takes us to the Sahel, a region permanently affected by political instability and the Islamist terrorist threat. At the end of 2024, the GSIM (support group for Islam and Muslims), a subsidiary of Al-Qaeda, has considerably gained in influence. On November 14 of that same year, the terrorist group captured Colonel Assimi Goïta, in power since a coup in 2020, and ten days later proclaimed the caliphate of Mali.
France, the most influential country in French-speaking Africa, then decided to intervene militarily alongside neighboring countries to contain a possible jihadist spread. This hypothesis, leading to a French military response, is deemed credible by a panel of experts contacted by L’Express. In the shadows, Russia, for its part, maneuvers and tries to advance its pawns in an area where the Wagner militia is very influential.
Find here the analysis of Djénabou Cissé, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and Étienne Girard, head of the Society department of L’Express.
Credits: Raphaël LAFARGUE/POOL/AFP and ROMARIC OLLO HIEN/AFP