Ukrainian offensive forces are approaching Russia’s main defense line in the Zaporizhzhia region. In the past few days, Ukraine says it has recaptured the village of Robotyne, an important milestone on the way to Russia’s most heavily defended positions.
Military professor at the National Defense University Aki-Mauri Huhtinen estimates that Ukrainian forces will reach the main defense line within a couple of weeks. At that time, the most decisive phase of the war so far will begin, he believes.
According to information from the front, Ukraine has deployed its best units, such as armored brigades armed with British Challenger 2 main battle tanks.
At the same time, Russia is also supposed to have transferred its best forces to the main defense line.
– Russia’s combat power and combat weapons should be there. At the point when these Ukrainian elite forces reach combat distance, it will be seen what the power of their know-how and Western equipment will be compared to Russia’s power, Huhtinen predicts.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which began in early June, has progressed slowly. According to Huhtinen, it is explained by the Russians’ first line of defense, which mainly consisted of huge mines.
It took the Ukrainians a long time to dismantle the mines, which still had additional traps hidden in them. There were a lot of losses during the work, as Russia constantly tried to hinder the demolition work with its artillery.
Will Ukraine get through the main line of defense?
According to Huhtinen, it would now be important for Ukraine to get the armored units received from the West properly in motion.
– The worst thing for a mechanized force is to have to fight in place, because they are made for mobile warfare.
Huhtinen emphasizes that recapturing land is not the only goal for the Ukrainian armed forces. It is very essential to get into a real fight with the Russian main force in order to destroy it.
Huhtinen points out that the term “counterattack” does not fit very well with Ukraine’s actions at the moment, because Ukraine is now specifically trying to destroy Russia’s power.
Ukraine has been very successful in destroying Russian anti-artillery radars and artillery positions. Ukraine’s problem, however, is that as long as the F-16 fighters are expected, it practically lacks an air weapon. This makes progress significantly more difficult.
The goals are Tokmak and the sea
Huhtinen believes that Ukraine has chosen the city of Tokmak as the main direction of its attack, from where it would continue to Melitopol and in the direction of Crimea.
During the last couple of days, Ukraine has spread its offensive wedge eastward from Robotyne towards the village of Verbove.
Huhtinen believes that this is due to the fact that Ukraine wants to keep the attack wedge wide enough so that there is room for maintenance and other support measures. Russia must also not be allowed to break the attack wedge with a counterattack from the side.
It has also been observed during the war that while Russian soldiers often defend their positions with great determination, when faced with a difficult situation they may simply abandon their positions and weapons. In the best case, this would create a domino effect that would collapse the entire Russian defense.
The progression of the attack will require a lot of reserve forces from Ukraine in any case, because the flanks of the front must be secured, says Huhtinen.
He estimates that even though Ukraine’s progress has been slow, progress has continued all the time. Russia, on the other hand, has never been able to take back the territories that were taken back by Ukraine.
The breaking of Russia’s main defense line and the destruction of its main force are therefore essential points for Ukraine in terms of the continuation of the war.
However, Huhtinen reflects that even if the defense line could not be breached immediately, Ukraine would not give up the war. Probably, in that situation, one would just gather more strength and try again later.
Huhtinen emphasizes that at this stage the warring forces just have to be given time.