(Tiper Stock Exchange) – The engines are warming up for the next Autumn Maneuver, with an all uphill path and old and new problems to face. Monday the premiere meeting at Palazzo Chigi after the return of Premier Giorgia Meloni from his holidays in Puglia. “A meeting of the majority group leaders on the Maneuver at Palazzo Chigi has already been scheduled for Monday”, confirmed today Maurizio Lupi of Noi Moderati.
One thing is certain: the blanket is getting shorter and shorter. Accounts in hand we speak of one 25-30 billion maneuverfor the extension of the cut to the tax wedge which alone is worth about 9 billion, for i productivity bonusesfor a first mini intervention on the tax reformfor the start of the Bridge over the Strait of Messinafor the healthcare and for the renewal of public service contracts, including those of the school for the three-year period 2022-2024. A smaller Maneuver would require to give up any of these chapters spending or postponing already announced measures, such as the tax reform.
Resource side the plate weeps: 4.5 billion were made available by deviation emerged in the DEF of last April, deriving from the difference between the trend deficit forecast for next year (3.5%) and the programmed one (3.7%); 1.5 billion could be scraped together with one spending reviews of ministries.
And these are the only certain resourcesbecause today it seems difficult that, in the context of the European debate for the reform of the Stability Pact, Rome can present itself at the negotiating table with Brussels with the call for a higher deficit to finance the Maneuver. A hypothesis that the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti doesn’t want to really consider and in fact spoke in Rimini of a “complicated” manoeuvre, while the majority are thinking on the hypothesis of raise the bar a little more with greater or lesser discretion.
The economic estimates for the last two quarters of 2023 they leave no room for flexibility: faced with a world economy in evident slowdown, Istat has estimated a second quarter GDP contraction of 0.3%, but a further slowdown is expected in the second half of the year and the DEF target of a 2023 GDP of +0.9% that would already be an important result.
Among the resources also the tax on bank profitswhich however will give a rather modest revenue and closer to one billion than to the initial 2 billion, once they are excluding the smaller institutions and local banks, as requested by Forza Italia. An entry that in addition to being a lump sum and, therefore, not valid for interventions of a structural nature, it would also be more similar to an anticipation, given that among the modifications being studied there is also the deductibility.
Among the possible interventions also surgical action on tax exemptions (deductions, deductions, substitute taxes, reduced rates, tax credits and so on) also provided for by the tax delegation.