On Monday evening, two private jets owned by the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, took off from an airport in Moscow. After just over half an hour in the air, one plane crashes some distance outside Moscow, a little later the other lands at a smaller airport in a nearby town.
According to Russian media, both the group’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and co-founder Dmitry Utkin died in the crash.
– As I understand it, there were two private planes that were on their way to Saint Petersburg, where Prigozhin is said to have been on one – and it is said to have exploded and been taken down, says Peter Lidén, lieutenant colonel.
Putin’s motives
The Wagner Group claims that the aircraft was fired upon by anti-aircraft guns, but it is currently unclear what exactly caused the aircraft crash.
Peter Lidén has a good knowledge of the Russian army’s operations in the gray zone between military and civilian. He was defense attaché at the Swedish embassy in Ukraine between 2015-2019, when Russia penetrated the country with various means.
– I have not understood whether it is shelling from outside or whether it is an explosion that occurred inside the aircraft. Regardless, it is probably a deliberate effort – and it is highly likely that the Russian regime is behind it, says Peter Lidén.
An effort that Russian President Vladimir Putin has every reason to be behind – as a response to the Wagner group’s coup attempt in midsummer, according to Lidén.
– Surely no one is surprised that this is happening. If it is Russia that is behind it, it is part of Putin’s desire to show the outside world that he is dealing properly with this type of mutiny, he says.
May mean “tougher action” against Ukraine
In addition, it gives Putin leeway to carry out shakeups in his own war command, which has faced harsh criticism over the performance of Russian forces in the war.
– I think that Putin was prepared to remove the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and perhaps even better the Commander of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov. But when Prigozhin carried out his revolt at midsummer, Putin could not fire them, because then it would appear that he was meeting Prigozhin’s demands, he says and continues:
– So if Putin is now behind this, he has given himself room to change his own war management.
According to Lidén, Monday’s turn of events could lead to Russia getting tougher on Ukraine.
– I interpret it as that he has now possibly shown strength and in the near future can rearrange the defense leadership and the armed forces who are genuinely dissatisfied with the way the invasion has been managed. In the long run, it can give a mandate to those in the Russian ranks who want a tougher grip, more comprehensive mobilization and that you use the most resources you have against Ukraine.