France and the United States immediately recognized this: with the fall of President Mohamed Bazoum, overthrown on July 26 by a military coup, the West has lost a strategic ally in Niger. But beyond this observation, very quickly, the first differences broke out between the two main partners of the ousted government. With, in particular, very different points of view on the response to adopt in the face of a junta that clings to power.
Between American and French diplomats, the cleavage intensified after the first meeting of the leaders of the ECOWAS countries on the subject of Niger, on August 10. If the negotiation must remain the priority, it has also been recorded the deployment of a “standby force” of the regional organization, leaving even today the possibility of a military intervention.
France and the United States endorsed the position of their West African allies. But each in their own way. While Paris affirmed “its full support for all the conclusions” of ECOWAS, including the most radical ones, Washington for its part insisted on “ECOWAS’s determination to explore all options for a peaceful resolution of the crisis”. . On August 15, Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State even added that the United States remained “focused on diplomatic means to obtain a return to constitutional order”.
As proof of this strategy led by Washington, a new American ambassador must arrive in Niger in the coming days, Kathleen FitzGibbon. This appointment follows the visit to Niger on August 7 by the Under-Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland, who was able to meet with a representative of the junta. The American executive assures him however: “This is not the sign of a change of policy of the United States, but of their continued involvement” in this crisis. But these initiatives go badly at the Quai d’Orsay.
The challenge of Western military forces in Niger
On the French side, maintaining diplomatic relations with the Nigerien military does not seem to be on the agenda. This would seem utopian anyway, as the extent of the anti-French discourse is fundamental to the strategy of the putschist regime. But France does not intend to drop all its interests in the region. Economic, already, while Nigerian uranium still represents a significant part of French supplies, without France being dependent on it.
But it is especially on the military aspect that France does not intend to abandon its presence in Niger. An air base is still operational near Niamey, mainly used for French drone intelligence operations, as well as the parking of several fighter planes and a few helicopters. At the same time, nearly 1,500 soldiers are still deployed in Niger today, mainly in the fight against jihadists. However, the latter remain under the command of the Nigerien army. An agreement dating from the hasty departure of the French forces from Mali, in August 2022, and on which the junta intends to return. However, Paris refuses for the moment to repatriate its troops: French diplomacy considers that the coup regime is illegitimate, it is therefore not entitled to revoke an agreement signed between Paris and the government of Mohamed Bazoum.
For their part, the United States also intends to maintain its more than 1,000 soldiers present on Niger soil. The Americans also have a highly strategic base in the north of the country, near Agadez, from where their military drones can cover a large part of West Africa. What justifies a certain caution in the face of the response to adopt in the face of this coup d’etat, while the junta is not currently showing itself to be particularly offensive with regard to Washington. “There is an American law which prohibits the government from providing security assistance to the authorities resulting from a coup d’etat. That said, it can drag its feet. For the moment, the United States has not yet formalized the putsch, they speak only of ‘attempt’ at this stage”, recently explained to L’Express Michael Shurkin, expert in security policies in West Africa.
The United States’ main interlocutor in Niger is General Moussa Salaou Barmou, the junta’s new chief of staff. A senior officer trained… on American soil, and former privileged partner of American military operations in the Sahel, as details it The Wall Street Journal. If this does not testify to an ease in negotiating with the Nigerien generals – the American Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland evoking “sometimes difficult” discussions with the representatives of the junta -, it nevertheless shows the diplomatic efforts deployed by the United States to reach a solution in their favor.
The end of Western influence in the Sahel?
This putsch in Niger could well mark the end of a decade of Western military intervention in the Sahel, notably marked by the Serval and then Barkhane operations from 2013 to 2022. After Mali and Burkina Faso, this now makes three of the five countries of the G5 Sahel which are now led by military regimes hostile to the West, and in particular to France. A fourth, Chad, if it is not led by a junta, is also very far from granting a blank check to Paris for its policy in the region. If the French executive relies so much on ECOWAS to restore constitutional order in Niger, it is also because the future of the French military presence in the Sahel is surely being played out at the moment.
For the United States, the stakes are not of this magnitude. If Niger represents a certain interest in American policy in the Sahel, this does not seem to justify Washington getting bogged down in an uncertain military intervention, while Washington turns its gaze more towards the Pacific than towards Africa. “There is a basic tendency within the American government to see the Sahel as a lost cause and to turn to the coastal countries in the face of the progression of the terrorist threat”, recalled Michael Shurkin to L’Express, before add, almost like a fatality: “There is a good chance that the United States will suspend its cooperation, if the junta remains.”
However, there are still several problems common to France and the United States. The jihadist risk could resurface as this Wednesday, August 16, a terrorist attack in southeastern Niger left 17 dead and more than 20 injured. The diplomatic void left by the West could also fully benefit Russia and its Wagner militias to proliferate in Niger as it was able to do in Mali or Burkina Faso.