Relations between Russia and Finland have soured as a result of the war of aggression started by Russia and Finland’s NATO membership.
It is reflected in the rhetoric and actions of the Russian political leadership, as well as in the stories that the Russian state media tells about Finland.
In stories Protection police spying on Russian diplomats in Helsinki and former President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev make fun of Finland’s decision to join the military alliance NATO.
“Russia has shown that it is not a reliable actor”
The relationship between Finland and Russia has changed significantly, especially compared to 2014, when Russia occupied the Crimean peninsula, Research Director of the Institute for Foreign Policy Sinikukka Saari says.
– Despite all the tensions and sanctions, we had, for example, a lot of economic cooperation, companies in Russia and Russian companies in Finland. There was a lot of cooperation stemming from financial benefits, says Saari.
However, this all came to an end after Russia invaded Ukraine.
– The political decision made by Russia was so decisive. It cannot be thought that the situation would change until the war ends or the state leadership changes. Russia has shown that it is not a reliable actor.
In the past, Russia did not consider the EU so hostile, but that has gradually changed.
– Anyone can see that the confrontation has constantly grown both in Russia’s actions and rhetoric.
At the beginning of the war of aggression, Russia declared EU countries unfriendly to it. Saari sees that it was a clear change in direction from Russia’s previous attitude. Saari says that Russia now treats Finland in the same way as other “unfriendly” countries that support Ukraine.
– The fact that Finland is treated in Russian propaganda in the same way as other EU or NATO countries is not very surprising. However, it is a clear change from Russia’s previous communication strategy, where it was often implied that Finland’s relationship with Russia was special and better than others.
Russia is trying to influence NATO and the EU
Saari does not believe that Russia has a long-term strategy specifically aimed at Finland, separate from the rest of Europe. Instead, he considers it likely that Russia’s goals place Finland in the context of the EU and NATO.
– Russia’s goals for NATO have been stated many times: preventing expansion and limiting NATO’s activities in Europe.
According to Saari, this is reflected in Finland in that Russia tries to influence Finland’s participation in NATO by intimidation.
– Intimidation can be used to ensure that Finland takes a cautious approach to the various forms of NATO cooperation, does not participate in them or in some way tries to limit its own participation in common defense.
Russia is trying to influence the EU in such a way that the amount of support given to Ukraine would decrease.
– At some point in time, Russia will probably also try to limit the EU’s sanctions policy or get rid of them.
Attempts to influence will probably continue
Saari believes that Russian attempts to influence will continue to be seen.
– I don’t see any signs that it will end. Regarding recent events: we will continue to see the activation of information influence in many different ways.
According to Saari, Russia’s influence is characterized by opportunism, which aims to take advantage of, among other things, the countries’ political differences.
– If, so to speak, playing spots open up, they will be grabbed. For example, if there is some kind of political turbulence, then through communication the aim is to tear small cracks into bigger cracks.
Saari is sure that the Kremlin spokesman will be seen near the eastern border Even Dmitri Peskov named “tactical and strategic countermeasures”.
– Of course, we will see changes in the long term at the bases near the Finnish border. Due to the war in Ukraine, it has not been very visible now. However, at some point in time we will see various armament-related and administrative changes at the border.
However, it is not likely that Russia would succeed in its attempts to influence Finland. Saari says that Russia’s influencing activities can even have unwanted consequences.
– I see for myself that this current policy and communication is risky in that it can cause the opposite reaction in Finns. Today, it seems far-fetched that the method chosen by Russia would be the most effective way to influence Finland.
This is how Russia’s influence has been seen during the spring and summer
Evening News reports on stories published recently in Russia, according to which Supo was engaged in extensive espionage and recruitment activities in Helsinki.
In the stories of the Russian state media, it was claimed, among other things, that Supo uses the staff of various service companies operating in Helsinki to spy on the staff of the Russian embassy and the Russian commercial mission.
A couple of days earlier, the vice-chairman and former president of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote Finland’s NATO membership in Finnish message service in X.
In his message, Medvedev attached pictures of two men, which are probably meant to represent Russians’ stereotype of Finns. The men are big and bearded, one of them is in the forest and the other is inside the house.
In April, the president Vladimir Putin signed the decree under which the assets of the energy company Fortum in Russia were taken over.
In May, Russia froze the bank accounts of all Finnish embassies in Russia. Later in May, Russia announced that it would close the Lappeenranta office of the Russian Embassy in Finland. The offices in Petrozavodsk and Murmansk under the jurisdiction of the Consulate General of Finland in St. Petersburg were also closed.
In May, Russia also announced that it would terminate the bilateral agreement with Finland on military assessment visits. The agreement agreed on one annual assessment visit by Russia to Finland and one assessment visit by Finland to the territory of Russia’s Leningrad Military District.
In August, the Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu saidthat Finland’s NATO membership is a “significant factor causing instability”.
Already in April, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said that NATO expansion is an attack on both Russia’s security and national interests. According to Peskov, Finland’s NATO membership “forces Russia to take tactical and strategic countermeasures”.