Record (soon) beaten. Global oil demand is expected to reach its “highest level on record” in 2023, according to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) published on Friday August 11. Previous studies were already counting on impressive figures. But the records for the months of June and August, with more than 103 million barrels per day, prompted the agency to revise its forecasts upwards.
Concretely, the global demand for black gold should reach, this year, 102.2 million barrels daily. Or 2.2 million units more per day than last year. To explain this increase, the agency puts forward three arguments: air travel during the summer, the use of oil to generate electricity, and the boom in Chinese petrochemical activity. “More than 70%” of growth is also due to China,” notes the IEA.
Decrease in supply
Bad luck, this exceptional increase comes at a time when the supply is falling. Drastic cuts have been decided by several OPEC + countries, which brings together oil-exporting states. Saudi Arabia and Russia, two weights of the alliance, have notably reduced their production to support costs. Result: last month, with 910,000 fewer barrels per day, supply reached 100.9 million barrels per day. This will cause prices to rise again.
However, the IEA estimates that the increase in oil demand will be less strong in 2024 than in 2023. The post-pandemic recovery is running out of steam and the ecological transition is accelerating, so “growth will slow down by a million barrels per day in 2024”, projects the agency. Good news at a time when the world must reduce its consumption of fossil fuels to limit global warming to +1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era.